Tuesday 29 May 2007

Football Season draws to a close

Not much football left to trade on this season..

A few internationals, the closing 2 rounds of games from La Liga and the Copa America will all come under the Football Trader's microscope in the coming weeks as I try to finish the season off on a high.

But without regular fixtures to trade on, I will be spending some more time trying to sort out my trading strategy for the new season.

This will focus on 3 key areas..

1) Money Management & Staking Strategy

For this topic, I will be leaning heavily on the excellent book by Joseph Buchdahl - Fixed Odds Sports Betting

http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_ss_w_h_/203-0263407-0892745?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Fixed+Odds+Sports+Betting&Go.x=16&Go.y=10

My money management and bankroll have been all over the place this season and i'm sure with some rules in place I can squeeze more profit from winning selections.

2) Discipline

I have tried to trade on every game that I have watched, from the Conference to the Champions League, and whilst this has given me a decent understanding of how the in running football markets work on Betfair, I'm not sure if it is the best strategy going forward.

Would I be better making 5 big trades a week or maintain my current methods of spreading my risk around a large number of relatively small trades?

3) Football knowledge

I will be keeping a close eye on the movements in the transfer market, and hope to take some early poistions on pre-season prices where I expect to find some decent value.

I will also be maintaining my interest in the Spanish League, as I look to get an edge on some of my fellow traders

I will be updating on these topics regularly, so please check out my blog and feel free to add your thoughts !

Monday 28 May 2007

Derby back in the big time

A goal from ex-Celtic midfielder Stephen Pearson has shot Derby County back to the Premiership .

Congratulations to Billy Davies who has steered the unfancied Rams to promotion.

A decent afternoon's work for The Football Trader who tipped up Derby pre-match and also the lay of over 2.5 goals - hope some of you were on.

Profits of +£47.19 may be small fry for a lot of traders, but it keeps my run going and gives me a monthly profit to date of +£267.52

Half Time Update

No goals in the opening period of the play off final at Wembley.

WBA dominated the early exchanges, but Derby created the best chance of the half when Paul Peschisildo should have done better with just the keeper Kiely to beat.

The game has been enjoyable enough, without ever really hitting the heights of some of the previous play off finals.

Trading in the 1st half has not been too bad, I have managed to guarantee a profit on the over/under 2.5 goals market.

I am still onside with Derby, and if they can start hitting Steve Howard more frequently I may end the match with a decent profit.

One other market that I have entered slowly is over 1.5 goals, and the price is now 2.42 which I am going to hammer into (1 goal will guarantee a decent profit).

Will update at full time

Play off money is down

On paper WBA look to have the stronger team, but I have followed up my gut feeling by backing Derby to win in 90 minutes at 3.52.

I have also layed over 2.5 goals at 2.14 and hopefully I can green out my position if we get the cagey start that I would expect.

Derby have sprung a surprise in their team selection by including Paul Peschisolido up front alongside main man Steve Howard, hopefully the ex-Fulham man can do the Football Trader a favour.

Will try and update in running as the game progresses

Derby v West Brom

The most financially important club game in the world kicks off at a sodden Wembley this afternoon, as Billy Davies and Tony Mowbray go head to head in the race for the Premiership.

The new stadium has been well used in recent weeks, and it will be interesting to see how the pitch holds up to the heavy rain that has been falling in NW London for the last 48 hours.

One disappointment already is that at least 10,000 corporate seats will be left empty as the FA lead by Brian Barwick once again show their incompetence.

From a personal point of view, i'm not really keen on either side playing today, but for trading on the match I have a little feeling that underdogs Derby may prevail.

Billy Davies has done a great job at Pride Park, and his Derby team will be well organised and play to their strengths. Key man Steve Howard will be the focal point for The Rams, and if he plays well it could be their day.

If Derby fail to go up, Billy Davies may find himsef in the Premiership anyway - he has been backed to be the next Man City manager (5th in the betting at 19.00).

I will give an update on my trades before the big kick off

Sunday 27 May 2007

Fame at last!

A long day in the trading chair was made worthwhile by the result in the Sevilla v Zaragoza match.

I had to take a big loss on the chin in the play off final between Blackpool and Yeovil, when the 3rd goal that I required never materialised, but my luck trading on horse races continued with McCoy (Super Sensation at Fontwell) and Kinane (Timarwa at the Curragh) both bringing home winners to keep my bankroll ticking over.

With the help of the Horses and Sevilla, I have managed to break through my target figure of £200 profit per month.

Hopefully I can hang onto the profit in the remaining few days of the month, with Derby v WBA looming large tomorrow.

As well as my modest profits, I have managed to break through the 1000 pageview mark for the month on this blog, so thanks to anyone who has taken the time to read my ramblings - hopefully some of you have managed to profit from my recommendations.

One final stroke of my ego came when I realised that I have been included in the following website http://www.blogtop40.com/jobs/24 in place 16 and hopefully heading into the top 10!

Good luck to all follow traders/bloggers

Profits flow again

A goal from ex Portsmouth loanee Alessando for Real Zaragoza has turned my day around.

With the help of 4 cans of Stella, my bankroll was all in , as trading was replaced with blatant gambling.

Heavily invested in over 2.5 goals and a relatively large lay of Sevilla, I was staring down the barrel of a major losing day.

Zaragoza's goal direct from a corner (may go down as an og for Dani Alves) allowed me to green out my position on the match odds market , and when Russian Kherzakhov put Sevilla back in front, my day of hard graft (!) has paid dividends.

Kanoute has scored in injury time to make up for a shocking penalty miss to give Sevilla a 3-1 win and keep them just 2 points behind the big 2.

A daily profit of £24.45 keeps the bankroll growing and gives me a monthly profit to date of £220.33

Sevilla Lead 1-0

Profitable trading on football is all about timing, and whilst I was congratulating myself for locking in a profit on the over/under 2.5 goals market, hesitation (& greed) may have cost me on the match odds market.

I had layed Seville at 1.69 and the price to back them was approaching evens when Luis Fabiano struck for the title chasers, to put my trade in trouble.

Hoping to get to HT without any further damage, and then re-assessing the situation

Sevilla v Zaragoza(2)

Thanks to Rob Palmer the Sky commentator for reminding me of the best example of handbags that I have ever seen on a football pitch in this reverse fixture earlier this season.

Fabiano must be the worst boxer that I have ever seen!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Zmg4CXSgdY

No goals after 5 minutes, hopefully the game can meander along with not much action for the next 15 minutes

Sevilla v Zaragoza

The pressure is on Sevilla to get the 3 points tonight against Real Zaragoza, so I have layed Sevilla at 1.68, as I expect some nerves tonight.

I have also layed over 2.5 goals at 1.82.

Hopefully I will be ale to trade out of both markets early on for a profit, but the way my luck has been today, Sevilla will probably score within the 1st 5 minutes

Sevilla have been one of the most enjoyable teams to watch this season, so I intend to sit back and watch as opposed to trading regularly in running.

Anything less than 3 points will end the title dreams of Juadne Ramos' men, so we should be in for a great match.

Just can't maximise profits

I just can't seem to hit a match with 3 goals in recent weeks.

I have an all green position on the over 2.5 goals market in the Nastic v Ath. Madrid match, but once again sitting waiting for the all important 3rd goal looks like proving fruitless.

Never mind, looking forward to watching Sevilla later this evening, and still a chance to improve on my trading so far today.

Torres Double

A brace for Fernando Torres, the 2nd from the penlaty spot and his 14th League goal of the season has piled the misery on already relegated Gimnastic.

Maxi Rodrigues was upended in the box and Torres comfortably slotted home the spot kick.

Things seem (hopefully) to be turning around for the Football trader with over 30 minutes left to get another goal to gain a maximum profit.

I will trade out for a profit in the next few minutes in the over 2.5 goals market, but need to squeeze as much profit as possible from the last few games of the season!

La Liga (Part 1)

Gimnastic have been relegated by other results today and face Athletico Madrid in the first of tonight's La Liga matches.

I watched Ath. Madrid concede 6 against Barcelona last weekend with some laughable defending but it looks like they will be more secure this evening.

An early goal from Fernando Torres has given the away side a 1-0 lead.

Thanks to a naive error of answering my mobile to someone I have been avoiding for the last 6 months, I have missed most of the 1st half, but at least it kept me out of my favourite market (over 2.5 goals) which would have moved against me.

I have got involved now with a small back of over 2.5 goals at 2.28.

After losing a relatively large amount on the Blackpool v Yeovil play off match, I managed to claw back some money by backing a couple of winning horses, with the short priced Timarwa esepcially impressive at the Curragh.

Keeping my fingers crossed for goals if I am to maintain a fairly decent run in recent days.

Blackpool win promotion

Congratulations to Blackpool who deservedly won the play off final against Yeovil.

Not a great start for the Football Trader though, as any sort of challenge from Yeovil failed to materialise and their season ended in a damp squib.

I fully expected a 3rd goal in the match and got involved with about 30 minutes to go, but except for a golden opportunity for Marcus Stewart (or Stooowart according to co-commentator Gary Birtles) I never looked likely to profit.

Never mind, I will have to play with small stakes in tonight's La Liga clashes.

Blackpool v Yeovil

Was just logging on to my laptop as Kiegan Parker curled a fabulous right footed shot into the top corner to give Blackpool a 2-0 lead.

Have had a small lay of Blackpool at 1.08 in the hope that Yeovil can get the next goal and force a bit of pressure.

I would expect at least 1 more goal in the match as the Glovers must push forwad to try and salvage their season, so have also had a smal interest in the over 2.5 goals market at 1.42, and will continue to invest in this for the next 10 minutes or so.

2 Spanish matches coming up later tonight as I try and break my target of £200 profit per month.

Saturday 26 May 2007

Barca scrape through

An early goal by Ronadinho was enough to give Barcelona all 3 points against Getafe.

The buck tooth Brazilian turned from hero to villain when he was sent off for rataliation after 40 minutes. Ronaldinho will now miss the last 2 games of he season.

Despite some scares for Barca, they have kept up the pressure on Real Madrid as the 2 heavyweights of La Liga go toe to toe.

An average day for the Football Trader with a profit of £22.49 on the day. My running total so far for May stands at +£195.88.

I will try and work out how to post a screen print of my account at the end of the month to validate my profit figures.

Too many early goals!

Once again an early goal has put me on the back foot, as Ronaldinho struck for Barca after just 2 minutes of their clash with Getafe.

Not sure if it is just end of season matches, but I have never known so many goals within the 1st 10 minutes of matches.

After 35 minutes Barca have somehow failed to add to their lead, so I should just about be able to get out of my pre-match trade (a lay of over 2.5 goals) unscathed.

Looks like a days worth of trading will end in a small profit.

Madrid win again

Goals from Ramos, Raul and Van Nistlerooy look like keeping Real Madrid on course for the Spanish title .

3-1 up with 15 minutes to go and Madrid have piled the pressure on Barca once again.

I have had a quick look through the Barca v Getafe markets and I have decided to lay over 2.5 goals at 1.61 - once again if there are no early goals I will hope to get out for a profit in the 1st half.

Will round up my trading activities later this evening, but it looks like a profitable day unless I mess up majorly in the final game of the night

Beckham starts for Madrid

Real Madrid face Deportivo at the Bernabeu as the live Spanish football just keeps on coming.

Devid Beckham starts wide on the right and they are hot favourites to take the 3 points (available to back at 1.21)

With the match odds being far too short for my bankroll, I have decided to revert to my old strategy that served me so well in March.

I have layed over 2.5 goals at 1.72 and hope to lock in a profit after 10-15 minutes.

Will try and update in running, but these Spanish games tend to be very eventful and don't always give enough time to trade and blog simultanously

Forlan brace ends Valencia's title hopes

Diego Forlan and Jan Dahl Tomasson, 2 strikers derided during brief spells in the Premiership have shared Villarreal's 3 goals this evening to end the title hopes of Valencia.

Another cracking match from La Liga, as the Spanish League once again proves to be the best in the world.

From a trading perspective, I somehow managed to salvage a small profit from a desperate position.

I managed to at last get back on the right side of the over 2.5 goals market for the first time in what seems like weeks, after backing over 2.5 goals a couple of times in the 2nd half to smash myself out of a potential loss.

I had also backed Valencia to win, but managed to neutralise my position by having a small bet on Villarrreal at 8 when the scores were level.

I am happy to be a lucky trader as opposed to a good one, so I hope my luck holds as we move onto the Bernabeu for Real Madrid v Deportivo

Spanish Update

I have become a huge fan of La Liga in recent months, and the entertainment on offer means it is virtually impossible to update this blog in running whilst keeping an eye on the moves in the market.

I have had a couple trades on the Valencia match so far, one of which looks like a nailed on loser.

Despite mentioning earlier that I fancied goals in this match, I tried to nick a few quid by laying that outcome, but an great finish by Diego Forlan has levelled the scores at 1-1 and leaves me with the option of taking a loss now or hanging in a bit longer to minimise the damage.

I have also had a small back of Valencia at 2.02.

Will try and update my trades, but may have to wait until full time before I get time!

Villa for Valencia

David Villa from the penalty spot has given Valencia the lead at home to Villarreal.

The match is being played at a great tempo and it looks like more goals may follow, although the over 2.5 goals quote looks a bit skinny to me at 1.77.

I want to get involved but will wait a while until the price drifts a bit further.

I am trying to work out the TV coverage tonight, but it looks like we could have 3 Spanish games back to back tonight! Another evening stuck in the trading chair beckons.

Valencia v Villareall

The 1st of tonight's Spanish matches has kicked off earlier than normal and caught me on the hop slightly.

Valencia must claim all 3 points if they are to maintain their outside chance of winning the title, and at the Mestalla they are a formidable outfit.

I haven't had much of a chance to check out the markets so will have to update later when I have made my decisions.

Small Profits

A late goal from Celtic to win the Scottish FA Cup Final has dug me out of a potential hole.

I backed Celtic at HT and then went in again at various prices during the 2nd half, and just when it looked like I had done my money, French right back Perrier Doumbe struck a fortuitous winner to keep my day on track.

As advised Bristol Rovers took the glory at Wembley to secure promotion to the 3rd division.

Hope anybody reading this profited from the Bristol Rovers and Celtic advice even if the Football Trader didn't make the most of my own advice!

However a small profit on the day so far +£15.32 is not to be sniffed at, and I still have a double header of Spanish action to come.

Will post Spanish tips later

Trading Update

What I am winning on one market, I am losing on another market!

Bristol Rovers have turned things around thanks to 2 clinical finishes from Richard Walker and I am in profit in the match odds market. Unfortunately my timing on the over 2.5 goals market was not sharp enough.

So overall it looks like a fairly neutral result for the Football Trader based on current trades .

I will keep an eye on the game, but am also getting involved in the Scottish Cup Final which is goalless at half time.

Celtic at 1.66 to beat Dunfermline in 90 minutes looks decent value, so I have waded into that and also had a speculative lay of under 2.5 goals at 1.29.

Will update at full time

Shrewsbury take early lead

A goal after 3 minutes has given Shrewsbury the edge in the play off final, and damaged my trade on Bristol Rovers.

But every cloud has a silver lining, and I think I have found some vlaue in the over /under 2.5 goals market.

Straight after the goal I managed to lay over 2.5 goals at 1.47 which I think could lead to profits if I can get out within the next 15 minutes without another goal

Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury

The play off finals normally produce one of the best weekends of the football season, and we kick off this afternoon with the 4th division final.

Bristol Rovers, backed by 40,000 fans are favourites to progress against Shrewsbury, and if they can maintain their recent form, the Gas look like a good thing. So I have backed Rovers at 2.44 (£12.00).

Expect a clash of styles in today's match, Shrewsbury will bomb the ball forward while Rovers will try and build off their bulky front men - Walker and Lambert.

I'm hoping for goals, but will stay out of the over/under 2.5 goals market in the early stages to see how the match pans out.

Beckham back in England Squad

As predicted by the Football trader almost a month ago (29/4) David Beckham has been handed a recall to the England squad for the friendly vs Brazil and the Euro '08 qualifier against Estonia.

Goldenballs has been playing well in a resurgent Madrid side, and with concerns about the fitness and form of Lennon and Wright-Phillips, Steve McClaren has buckled under media pressure.

Whether Beckham will actually be selected to start the games is open to question, but it would be a fitting tribute to the former England captain to be involved in the 1st international at the new Wembley Stadium.

Anyone who watched the England B international last night againt Albania would have seen Beckham's heir apparent David Bentley stake a major claim for the wide right role, and he now looks like getting an exended run in the full squad.

Saturday Trading

The last decent weekend of football trading for this season gets underway today at Wembley, as Bristol Rovers take on Shrewsbury in the 4th Division play off final.

Then later this evening we have more from La Liga, as heavyweights Real Madrid and Barcelona both have winnable home games in their dual for the title.

Hopefully I can make the most of these games to boost up my trading profits for May

At this point I have a little confession to make, with the lack of football on in recent days, I have been straying into other sports, most notably Horse Racing with some surprisingly good results (must be beginners luck!).

A quick look at my Betfair P&L for the month to date, shows the following..

Horse Racing (+£139.71)
Snooker (+£90.18)
Football (-£44.50)
Specials (-£12.00)

Giving me trading profits for May (so far) of +£173.39.

I really need to get my Football trading in green for the month, given that it is supposed to be my specialiasm - so will be showing a bit more discipline for the rest of the month.

Friday 25 May 2007

Next Man City Manager

Man City do no seem in a particular hurry to appoint a new manager. Nearly £200,000 has been matched on www.Betfair.com on this market so far.

Claudio Ranieri has headed the market for over a week now, but the longer the appointment takes the more he drifts.

Currently available at 2.72, my fellow blogger at www.cloningarteta.blogspot.com seems to have read the market correctly by laying the Tinkerman at skinny odds.

There does seem to be some money for Lyon boss Gerarrd Houillier who is now clear second favourite at 5.2

I have had a small involvement with Paul Jewell and Jean Tigana at fancy prices, but also will make a small profit if favourite Ranieri is installed at Eastlands.

With the departure of Distin and the likely exit of Joey Barton whoever takes the job will do well to keep City away from the relegation scrap next season

Wednesday 23 May 2007

Milan prove that cheats prosper

AC Milan take the glory in the Champions League, but their victory is tainted by misdemeanours off the pitch.

Along with West Ham staying in the Premiership, Milan's triumph leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

My trading on the night wasn't too bad, I was well involved with Liverpool lifting the trophy but managed to get out of jail with my involvement in the over 2.5 goals market.

So I managed to avoid meltdown thanks to Dirk Kuyts' late goal and recorded a small profit of £5.16 on the day.

Lucky Milan have HT advantage

Liverpool will trudge off at half time in Athens wondering how they find themselves 1-0 down at the interval.

Their game plan has worked well, and they have controlled proceedings for long periods, but a deflected free kick has undone all of their good work.

Probably the worst possible outcome from a trading perspctive was a Milan goal, although I have managed to limit the damage with some of the subsidiary markets.

I backed 0-0 for £18 at 6.5 and managed to get out for a small profit (+£3.80) before the first goal went in.

In the early stages the over 2.5 goals market was over reacting massively and I got involved laying under 2.5 goals at 1.44 with a liability of £50.35 - I could get out for a profit now and will consider my options in the next few minutes.

I have also layed Milan to win the cup at 1.71 - liability of £39.60 which unless Liverpool score looks like a loser.

The 2nd half should be a classic encounter as Liverpool now have to go for it, expect Crouch to be introduced in the next 15 minutes.

In Rafa I trust!

Champions League Final

The plunge on AC Milan seems to have abated slightly, I layed them to lift the cup at 1.69 yesterday and they are now available to lay at 1.72.

I have gone in again at that price as my bullish attitude on Liverpool has survived a day of questioning in the office.

I am leaving the 90 minute markets alone at the moment, as I expect a cagey match with few goals - however i'm sure I will get involved when the action gets under way.

Tuesday 22 May 2007

AC Milan v Liverpool

Punters have been smashing into Milan to lift the famous jug eared trophy on Wednesday evening.

The Italians clearly should not even have been in the competition after their part in the Serie A match fixing scandal. Their 44 point deduction was reduced to 30 points on appeal to conveniently allow them entry into the Champions League.

An impressive semi final performance against big match bottlers Man Utd seems to have clouded the judgement of traders.

I have layed AC Milan at 1.69 for a small liability and with less than 24 hours to kick off I am very bullish about Liverpool's chances.

Benitez has the tactical nous to exploit an ageing Milan side who have been carried to the final by the goalscoing exploits of the sublime Kaka.

I will be getting stuck in more tomorrow, but if you are thinking of trading on the match, take the time to check out the press kit provided by the excellent Uefa website.

http://www.uefa.com/printoutfiles/competitions/ucl/2006/e/e_300099_pk.pdf

To me the key is in the forward positions, in '05 Milan had the movement and finishing ability of Crespo and Shevchenko in '07 they will rely on one of Inzaghi (surname offside) or Gilardino (surname anonymous).

If Benitez can organise his side to keep Kaka quiet and move the influential Gattuso out of central areas I fully expect Liverpool to record their 6th win

Free Bet with BetHiLo

Having been concentrating my efforts on fixed odds trading on Betfair, I have neglected my interest in spread betting recently.

All credit to BetHiLo however, who keep sending me e-mails offering me a £20 refund on any losses that I incur.

If I understand the offer correctly, I can have a bet on the Champions League Final tomorrow and as long as I only risk £20 maximum loss, I will get my money back - effectively a no lose situation.

They have a massive range of markets, so choosing where to invest the free bet may be difficult!

Early contenders are the number of converted penalties (aet) 1-1.3, a £15 buy @1.3 could yield a decent profit if the match goes that far.

Other markets of interest include a buy of Gerrard goal minutes 10-13 and a sell of Milan corner supremacy at 0.25

Beckham 9/4 to play against Estonia

Bet 365 have sensed the growing clamour around a recall for David Beckham, chalking up a 9/4 quote that Goldenballs will be in the starting 11 against Estonia on June 6th.

Steve McClaren will have to swallow his pride and go back on his decision to effectively end Beckham's international career if the former captain is to land the odds.

McClaren is almost friendless in the media and with the general public, and his weak position may tempt him to bow to populist pressure.

On current form, Beckham is a better bet than Lennon or Wright-Phillips and it is worth having a small interest at 9/4 just to watch the hugely out of his depth Mclaren squirm.

Monday 21 May 2007

Quiet on the Trading Front

Not much to get my teeth into this week, except the Champions League Final on Wednesday.

So, I will be starting work on plans for next season.

In today's Racing Post, there is an intersting article by the excellent tipster Kevin Pullein, describing how he works even harder on his betting strategy in the summer months as he reviews past performance and searches for that elusive edge.

I will be doing the same and regularly updating my thoughts on this blog, as well as finalising a more defined trading strategy and money management system.

I think I have proved to myself that I can make regular profits trading Football matches on Betfair, but can definitely improve my returns with more discipline and some more structured 'rules'

Interesting that reports today suggest that David Beckham could be recalled to the England squad for the games against Brazil and Estonia - as predicted on this blog (29th April).

One other market that I have been following is the next Man City manager - initially I waded into Paul Jewell whose price has drifted significantly. Although that appointment looks unlikely, I haven't given up all hope on that even though the Tinkerman Ranieri is a hot favourite for the job.

One other interesting candidate at a huge price is Jean Tigana (200.00) - having just left Besiktas, the Frenchman should be considered for this post after his performance as Fulham manager. I have invested the princely sum of £2 at that price!

Sunday 20 May 2007

6 Goal Romp for Barca

Barcelona kept their hopes of retaining the La Liga title well and truly alive with a breathtaking 6-0 away win at Athletico Madrid.

Looking through the fixture lists of both Real Madrid and Barca, tonights visit to the Vicente Calderon looked like the toughest game left for either side.

Athletico Madrid unbeaten at home in 2007 were ripped apart by Barcelona, aided by some laughable goalkeeping from reserve Pichu.

Messi (2), Zambrotta, Eto'o, Ronaldinho and Iniesta did the damage, and in fairness it could have been 10.

A successful night for the Football Trader as goals flowed in both live matches tonight.

A profit of £58.50 is a decent evenings work, and gets my trading back in the Green for the month to date.

Pingu hands Barca 3-0 HT lead


I had a small trade on over 2.5 goals on the Ath Madrid v Barca clash and then sat through a poor 38 minutes.


Suddenly Messi came to life with the opening goal after exchanging passes with Eto'o, and then Atletico's back up goalkeeper Pichu (more like Pingu) dropped 2 clangers to hand Barca a hardly deserved 3-0 HT lead.

I am £41.28 in profit for the evening so far.

Spanish League Drama

The drama just continues every week in La Liga.

Real Madrid 2-0 up and cruising against Recreativo were pegged back to 2-2, but another injury time stunner, this time from Roberto Carlos has given them all 3 points.

I watched Madrid a few times earlier this year and they looked clueless and the entertainment value was on a par with the Premiership, but in recent weeks they have gone into overdrive.

The last 3 games have yielded 17 goals, a 3-2 win v Sevilla, a 4-3 win v Espanyol and now a 3-2 win against Recreativo.

The old guard and the new guard have combined to give Madrid a great chance to secure their first title in 4 years.

A decent start for the Football Trader as well with some very small trades on the goals markets which have yielded an £11.93 profit.

The spotlight now falls on a faltering Barca side after Valencia, Sevilla and Real Madrid have all taken maximum points.

Should be a cracker from the Vincente Calderon Stadium in Madrid

Real Madrid pile pressure on Barca

I have been away from my trading desk for most of the weekend, and have just managed to wake up after the dross served up in the worst FA Cup final in living memory.

I was very confident with my recommendation of Real Madrid to win the Primera League and they currenty lead 2-1 away at Recreativo.

If they hang onto the lead, they will be just 3 wins away from an improbable title win.

Barcelona have a very tricky looking away fixture against Athletico Madrid, and any continuation of their patchy away form could signal the end of their title challenge.

Saturday 19 May 2007

FA Cup Final

It is hard to pick a winner in today's Wembley showcase, and for the neutral the lack of a real underdog makes it difficult to get enthused about the match.

I'm hoping for a decent match, but won't hold my breathe.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a penalty shoot out decide the fate of the FA Cup

Thursday 17 May 2007

Defensive shambles

..has cost me tonight.

Think I will just sit back and enjoy the match as I am totally on the wrong side of this play off match.

A couple of Stella's will numb the pain of wiping out most of my small monthly profit in 40 minutes of football!

In fairness the Racing Post tipped up over 2.5 goals today but I ignored their advice.

Time for me to re-group and re-think my strategy

Nightmare!

Should have just left my laptop switched off tonight! Everytime I have got involved, another goal has gone in.

Have tried a speculative lay of over 3.5 goals at 1.18 (liability of £9.90).

Hopefully we can get to HT without another goal

In for a penny....

Playing a dangerous game tonight..

I have increased my liabilty on over 2.5 goals to £31.82, and in the process averaged down my odds from 1.57 to 1.32.

I need another 15 minutes or so without another goal to recover from a bad start.

Fingers crossed

Bristol Rovers take early lead

A stunning strike from Gas captain Campbell has put Bristol Robers firmly in the driving seat against Lincoln.

I have layed over 2.5 goals at 1.57 - liability of £22.80.

But as I type Ricky Lambert has virtually booked Rovers' trip to Wembley with a 2nd goal and put my trade in big trouble..

Not a great start!

Monthly Update (+£59.94)

Before getting involved in the Lincoln v Bristol Rovers play off 2nd leg, I thought I would just post a few more details of what has been a topsy turvy month so far..

May 1st: -£24.59
May 2nd: +£6.56
May 3rd: -£10.17
May 6th: +£55.57
May 7th: +£23.63
May 8th: -£0.56
May 9th: -£50.44
May 10th: -£28.35
May 12th: +£19.12
May 13th: +£38.71
May 14th: -£19.82
May 15th: +£53.56
May 16th: -£3.28

In 13 days trading, I've had only 6 profitable days, but overall have made a small profit. Looking back through some of my trades, Iwould be at least £100 in profit if I had shown a bit more discipline.

I will start giving more details of my trades in future posts, as giving more details actually helps me to keep my discipline

Wednesday 16 May 2007

Uefa Cup Drama

A magnificent period of extra time from Hampden Park.

Kanoute looked to have given Sevilla the cup for the 2nd year running, and then Sevilla missed a succession of chances with the fantastic Dani Alves the main culprit.

Then out of nowhere Espanyol have equalised - giving the Football Trader a nice profit on over 1.5 ET goals.

Kanoute has just missed another sitter, as we may ahve penalties after all...

Uefa Cup Final - Extra Time

A bonus 30 minutes, extra time in the Uefa Cup Final.

Sevilla up against 10 man Espanyol are doing all the pressing.

Will we actually see a final not decided on penalties?

Boing, Boing, Baggies

WBA get to Wembley, where they will face Derby for a place in the Premiership.

No luck with my trades tonight, despite plenty of chances for that all important 2nd goal to go in, it didn't quite happen.

WBA v Wolves

I missed the first 30 minutes of the Black country derby. 0-0 at the moment.

I have had a little interest in over 1.5 goals (£13 at 1.70) and over 2.5 goals (£7 at 2.84)

Come on the goals!

Tuesday 15 May 2007

Derby at Wembley

Derby have completed part 1 of their mission to get to the Premiership.

Not surprisingly, the night ended with a pitch invasion - at least they had the good grace to wait until the end of the match this time.

WBA v Wolves and the all Spanish Uefa Cup final are on tomorrow and it should be another good night of trading

Extra Time

A late, late strike by ex Derby player Rasiak has given Southampton a lifeline, with a 3-2 win on the night we are now into extra time.

A decent nights trading so far, a small profit was made by backing the draw early in the first half and getting out at HT.

I then managed to get on the right side of the over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals markets.

I don't really like getting involved in Extra Time markets, as fear generally takes over and the players rely on the security blanket of penalties.

So I think it is time to sit back and root for the Saints - I still haven't forgiven Derby for the last game of he 1983 season when they cheated Fulham out of a chance of promotion to the top flight

All Level at Pride Park

After breathless first 5 minutes between Derby and Southampton the match settled down.

I managed to back the draw at 3.65 and bailed out for a small profit when the price moved below 3.00.

Southampton look a bit fragile at the back but have had the better of the 1st half.

Very difficult to call at the moment, but will get involved again in the 2nd half

Congratulations to Big Sam

Sam Allardyce was finally appointed as the next Newcastle manager after a nervous wait for Betfair traders.

Big Sam was advised at short prices on these pages, and the 1.30+ quotes now look like fantastic value.

The Geordie public don't seem that convinced by the appointment, but i'm sure come October / November next season they will be delighted.

I expect Newcastle to challenge for a Uefa Cup place next season.

Frantic start at Pride Park

Unfortunately an impending work deadline has curtailed my trading so far this evening, but what a cracking start to the Derby v Southampton match.

The 2 Premiership chasers have traded goals with the first 5 minutes to leave Derby 3-2 up on aggregate.

I have backed the draw at 3.65, and hope to trade out for a profit as the game settles down

Monday 14 May 2007

Play offs and Managerial merry go round

Expect Paul Jewell to be installed as the next Man City manager wthin the next 2 weeks.

Give him a respectable amount of time to 'recharge his batteries' and wade into the 11.00 quote on the chirpy Scouser to get a deserved shot of running a 'massive'club.

Big Sam will also be announced as Newcastle manager in the next couple of days, but the Football Trader could not possibly mention the term tapping up (shit too late!).

Anyway, onto more pressing matters.

Franchise Mk Dons look good value to ruin the party at Gay Meadow and I also expect goals to follow.

I will update in running

Time to draw breathe

After a hectic weekend of trading things will be a bit more sedate this week, with the Football League play offs and Uefa Cup Final the appetizers before the FA Cup Final on Saturday.

Just a quick update on the next Newcastle manager situation.

I advised last week that backing Sam Allardyce was like buying money, and his price this morning on Betfair justifies that bullish attititude.

He is now available to lay at 1.09, so if you can't wait for the formalities to be completed before realising a profit, you may want to get out now.

I couldn't understand the drift in his price when he touched 1.34 and some layers will have got stung at that price.

Hope you were on with the Football Trader!

Sunday 13 May 2007

Real Madrid Great Value for Spanish Title

Hopefully followers of this blog will have had a few profitable trades on the back of advice on these pages, and it look slike I have spotted another good value trade.

Having immersed myself in the Spanish League football in recent weeks, Real Madrid look great value to secure the title (2.12)

With 4 fixtures remaining, Real Madrid will have few concerns about home fixtures with mid table Deportivo and Mallorca (final match).

That just leaves 2 away fixtures, Recreativo de Huelva and Real Zaragoza which although not easy, are more than winnable.

I would fully expect Real Madrid to pick up 10 points in the last 4 games, which would leave arch rivals Barcelona needing to take maximum points from games against Athltico Madrid (a), Getafe (h) (who beat them 4-0 in the cup last week), Espanyol(h) and Gimnastic(a).

I can't see Barcelona being able lift themselves to pick up 12 points from a tough set of fixtures, so tonight's home draw with Real Betis may have cost them the title.

Sevilla have been great to watch all season, and have managed to hang in the title race. Their remaining 4 fixtures are all winnable Deportivo (a), Real Zaragoza(h),Mallorca(a) and Villareal (h), but with 2 cup finals also on their agenda and the fact that 4 wins may not even be enough to secure the title, it would be a massive shock if they win the title.

Looking at the prices available on Betfair, they can't really split Real Madrid (2.12) and Barcelona (2.14) for favouritism, and based on the fixture list the odds on Real Madrid look like great value (they should be an odds on shot in my book).

Title run ins rarely follow the expected script, but with the new found spirit in the Madrid camp I would advise getting on Madrid before the traders and odds compilers realign their prices

RECOMMENDATION: BACK REAL MADRID TO WIN SPANISH LEAGUE AT 2.12

Come on Betis

The Football Trader has started to work his magic again in recent weeks after a struggle in April.

I advised laying Barca at 1.10, more in hope than expectation, but a late goal by Betis has given me a decent profit on the day.

I hope any followers of this website have profited from a great day of tips, the like of which you will not find anywhere else on the internet.

I started this morning by recommending backing Sheffield United to get relegated at 8.20, and then followed up with a back of Blackpool which allowed me to get out for a profit.

Then this evening the coup de grace, a lay of Barcelona at 1.10 has proved successful.

Valencia v Zaragoza still to come tonight, I will update in running when I have had a good chance to assess the match

Profits from Blackpool

In form Blackpool have done the business so far in the play off semi final 1st leg.

They have produced a storming 2nd half performance and deservedly lead 1-0.

I tipped up Blackpool in my last article and have bailed out for a decent profit whatever the outcome.

I have now focused my attention to the Nou Camp. Barca lead through an early penalty, but have failed to extend their lead despite almost total domiance.

I expect Barcelona to win comfortably, but have layed them at 1.10 in the hope that Betis manage to sneak an equaliser.

I have also backed over 2.5 goals, so the ideal scenario is a Betis goal..

Whatever happens, I have had a profitable day's trading and have started to get back some of my discipline as I aim to turn in a decent profit in May

Play Offs & La Liga

A choice of matches for early on Sunday evening, Oldham vBlackpool or Barcelona v Real Betis.

At Boundary Park a cagey opening 15 minutes has kept me out of the market, and once again prices on the top Spanish teams are prohibitively short.

I have had a small interest in Blackpool and will wait and see how Barcelona react to being knocked off the top of the Spanish League before getting involved

Sheff Utd relegated

Neil Warnock will be apopletic, and I have every sympathy for him

After one season in the top flight, Sheffield United go down after a home defeat on the final day of the season.

When I woke up this morning, I did fear for the Blades, and tipped them up at 8.20 to be relegated.

Everyone outside of East London knows that West Ham should have had points docked and the Blades should not be in this position - I hope Fulham and Wigan stand shoulder to shoulder with Sheffield United in their legal action and rinse West Ham through the courts.

I can't even watch the after match events from Old Trafford, as the Premiership ruling has left a massive stain on the national game.

Congratulations to Wigan and Paul Jewell who has pulled off another last day miracle.

West Ham survive - for now

West Ham as expected got the result required to save themselves on the pitch against a weak Man Utd side.

Not surprsingly Carlos Tevez got the all important goal and the little Argentinain has inspired a remarkable recovery for the Hammers.

This will not be the end of the matter though, as court action is now inevitable.

Come on United

Well here come the big guns. Ronaldo, Scholes and Giggs are on.

2 goals will relegate the Hammers and nothing would make my day more than that.

I have backed United at 4.30

Sir Alex immune from critcism?

As expected Fergie has gone in with a depleted line up and have almost handed West Ham survival on a plate. 0-1 at HT. Not even a hint of criticism, in fact priase for honouring the integrity of the Premiership - what integrity?

Tyler and Gray have decided to bang on about the side that Liverpool put out against Fulham, even suggesting that Al Fayed should be writing a letter of thanks to Rick Parry.

Well Mr Gray which midfield would you rather face? A 3 consisting of Fletcher, Richardson and Carrick or Liverpool's with Xabi Alonso, Sissoko, Pennant and Gonzales.

Anyway, I haven't got time to vent my spleen at Andy Gray at the moment, becaus ethere is money to be made!

I hope any readers followed my early advice and got on Sheff Utd at 8.20 to be relegated.(see earlier post).

Premiership Climax Today

West Ham have the chance to complete their great escape today, and look more than capable of getting the point they require at Old Trafford.

United are an usually big price for a home Premiership win (1.79 on www.betfair.com) and despite all the talk of playing a strong side today, it will be interesting to see how many starters make the FA Cup final 11 next week.

Carlos Tevez, the illegal inspiration behind West Ham's dramatic upturn in form could well be playing his last match for the Hammers, and whilst controversy still surrounds the Argentinian, i he does leave Upton Park, I hope he gets snapped up by another Premiership club in the summer.

Sheffield Utd and Wigan meet at Bramall Lane, and one of these clubs will go down if West Ham get the requitred result.

Wigan have had a shocking run of results lately and are favourites to go down (1.45). Paul Jewell will try and inspire some last day heroics and you never know what could happen on a day of tension like today.

Sheffield Utd have a good home record and will be backed by a large support, but that brings it's own problems.They looked nervous at home when they scraped past Watford a couple of weeks ago, and they could end up as the fall guys.

I won't be in the trading chair until about 4.15pm today, so by then the relegation fightmay already have been setlled, but I have given my advice below:

Recommendation: Try a speculative punt on Sheffield Utd to go down - they are far too big a price at 8.20. Wigan are priced at 3.45 to win the match, and if they do I would expect the Blades to drop into the bottom 3.

Saturday 12 May 2007

Saturday Round Up

A marathon day of trading has come to an end.

After watching 5 live matches, 7.5 hours of live football it has resulted in a small profit of about £20.00. Maybe I should just get a second job on the minimum wage as it would be more profitable!

In all seriousness it has been a great day of lounging around watching football and drinking, and to come out with a small profit is a bonus.

Watching so much football, the following thoughts came to mind..

Is Gareth Bale the most overrated teenager in English football?
The new Wembley is a great stadium, and the FA Cup Final will be a special occasion next week.
The Play offs are great.
Spanish Football is so much better than the Premiership
Real Madrid have a great chance of winning La Liga

Tomorrow, I have to resume my fatherly duties until 4.00pm, so i will miss out on the Black country play off match between Wolves and WBA which should be a tasty affair.

I will be rooting for West Ham to get relegated, although I fully expect them to get at least a point at Old Trafford tomorrow

Hope that you had a profitable day

Value in opposing Seville

Seville were lucky to get to half time at 1-0 up and had keeper Palop to thank for keeping a clean sheet.

Minds seem to be on the Uefa Cup Final, so I have layed Sevilee at 1.25 in the hope that Recreativo can level things up in the 2nd period

Missed Opportunity

I foolishly got sucked into the Eurovision song contest for 15 minuts and missed another goal from ex-WBA man Enzo Maresca.

Most of the decent prices have gone now, although I have had a small lay of over 2.5 goals at 1.68

Sevilla v Recreativo de Huelva

The 2nd leg of the Spanish double header has a lot to live up to after the game of the season that we have just witnessed between Real Madrid and Espanyol.

With the Uefa Cup final looming, it will be intersting to see what sort of line up Juande Ramos selects tonight.

I will be awaiting team news before getting invloved

Real Madrid go top

What a game..

I talked about reputations earlier, but Madrid have been magnificent in the 2nd half and have turned around a 3-1 HT deficit to win 4-3.

Youngster Higuain has struck in the 90th minute to take Real to the top of the League and pile the pressure on Barcelona who face Real Betis tomorrow.

From a trading perspective that goal has done me a favour as I have been with Madrid since Reyes made it 2-3 on the night.

The wine is flowing, and we still have the Seville match to come

Real Madrid 3 - 3 Espanyol

What an incredible night of football in Madrid.

Real are now on level terms and look almost guaranteed to take the 3 points if the game continues in this manner.

Reyes and Raul have scored the goals in the second half to wipe out the advantage given by Walter Pandiani's 1st half hat trick.

I haven't seen anything so entertaining in the English League for a number of years

Trading on reputation?

It is always interesting trading on the likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona, as prices seem to reflect reputations rather than what is actually happening on the field.

It is a theme I will return to next season when I am far more involved in the Spanish scene.

Tonight though, Madrid find themselves 3-1 down at Half Time to a good Espanyol side, yet you can still back the Catalonians at 1.68.

I managed to get on at 2.08 after the 3rd of Pandiani's hat trick, which was a ridiculous price given the events on the field.

Obviously if Real score next, which is highly likely that price will disappear fast, so I am going to take a profit at Half Time.

Be careful when getting involved with Real Madrid and Barcelona, as generally their price does not reflect reality

Pandiani strikes 3

Breathless stuff from Madrid.

Walter Pandiani now has a 1st half hat trick in a match that is fast turning into a classic.

Madrid 1 -3 Espanyol.

Richard Keys needs to stop banging on about how great the Premiership is, because it is not a patch on La Liga.

Everytime I try and get in with Real they have conceded, so I have totally changed my strategy and have backed Espanyol at 2.08.

Hopefully they can hold out till half time

Horse Face gets Real back in it

I can't keep up with events from Madrid tonight, every time I have a look at my trading another goal goes in.

It is now 2-1 to Espanyol and Ruud van Nistlerooy has brought Madrid right back into the match.

With Madrid committed to pushing on and Espanyol looking dangerous on the counter attcak it looks like we are in for another classic form the best league in the world

Pandiani on fire

Thank goodness for that. My patience in not rushing to get with real Madrid has saved me.

The Rifle and Birmingham reject Walter Pandiani has scored a wonderful 2nd goal to give Espanyol a shock 2-0 lead

The in running prices are all over the place with Espanyol now at 2.06 to win the match. Madrid are a derisory 3.45 which again is far too short for me to get involved in

Following Real Madrid blindly

With Real trailing 1-0 to a Pandiani strke for Espanyol, I am waiting for their price to get nearer to evens before getting involved.

So far Kameni in the Espanyol goal has dealt with the inevitable pressure that he is facing.

Price for a Real Madrid win is still too short for me at 1.86.

Hopefully by staying patient I will find a bit of value

Gutted

For some reason, Sky have decided to start their live coverage of the Real game 16 minutes into the game and The Rifle - Walter Pandiani has fired Espanyol ahead.

Obviously the price of 19.00 is now long gone, with Espanyol now available to lay at 5.70.

Will have to re-think my trading startegy now after being stitched up by the Sky coverage

Spanish Double Header

After the passion and pride of the play offs and FA Trophy final we move on to the quality offerings of the night, with a Spanish double header live on Sky.

We kick off at the Bernabeu, as Real Madrid try to maintain their recent upturn in form with a win against Uefa Cup Finalists Espanyol.

A win for Real will take them to the top of the La Liga for the first time in 18 months.

Some miserly prices on offer on www.betfair.com for a Real win (available at 1.21).

And the over 2.5 goals market is prices at 2.00.

Will probably keep a watching brief in the early stages, although I am half tempted to have a small punt on Espanyol at 19.00.

No Beckham tonight, by the way as he misses this clash with a suspension.

Rovers take the lead

A great finish from Richard Walker has given Bristol Rovers a 2-1 advantage in the early stages of the 2nd half.

Half a bottle of red wine seems to have focused my trading and I am beginning to enjoy events in the West Country.

Over 2.5 goals as advised pre-match has come in, and I managed to maximise my investment in the draw before Rovers took the lead.

A decent atmosphere being generated with some lusty renditions of "Goodnight Irene".

The scrumpy could be flowing in the blue half of Bristol tonight

Bristol Rovers 1-1 Lincoln

A decent 1st half from the Memorial Ground for my trading.

I was fairly heavily involved in the over 2.5 goals market so 2 goals in the first period mean that I am sitting on a profit whatever the outcome (+£18.76 under and +£13.51 over).

I have re-invested much of the potential profit onto the draw - £24.76 back at 2.94.

I will start to realise some of the potential profits as the price moves in my favour - at HT I can lay for 2.46

Gas vs Red Imps

In form Bristol Rovers take on perennial play off failures Lincoln at the Memorial Ground in the 3rd game of the day.

Rovers sneaked into the play offs after 45 games of the regular season and only confirmed their place with an impressive win against already promoted Hartlepool.

Top of the current form table they are looking to add a trip to Wembley to their jaunt to the Millenium Stadium a couple of months ago.

Rovers have a great defensive record at home conceding just 14 times in 23 home league matches, so Lincoln could have their work cut out today.

I haven't checked out the stats, but play off matches seem to produce more goals in general than league matches, so I am sticking to my strategy of backing over 2.5 goals.

There are plenty of experienced strikers on display with Walker / Lambert for Rovers and Forrester / Stallard for Lincoln, so hopefully one of them can find an early goal to open up the match.

I backed over 2.5 goals at 2.54 and the price has moved South since, currently at 2.48.

If I was trading for big stakes they are the type of movements that would help to guarantee a decent profit before the game even kicks off, but at my stake levels I will stay invested.

I have also had a little interest in Bristol Rovers to win in 90 minutes.

I will update in running

Stevenage lift the Trophy

A cracking match to christen the new Wembley Stadium as Stevenage came back from a 2 goal deficit at HT to claim glory.

Congatulations to manager Mark Stimson who has now won 3 consecutive FA Trophy final's.

It was a bizarre game for trading on in running.

Pre-match I tipped up Stevenage and over 2.5 goals which both obliged, but during the course of the match I was never quite on top of the situation.

I managed to turn in a small profit, mainly thanks to the number of goals.

My trade on the draw at HT (10.00) didn't really yield the profits that it deserved as I bailed out for a small profit after the first Stevenage goal.

I shouldn't complain though, a profit no matter how small is always welcome and keeps me alive for the next match, Bristol Rovers v Lincoln

Stevenage on level terms

Well what a turnaround..

I advised a back of the draw at half time (10.00), but to be honest it was more in hope than expectation.

But with 15 minutes to go the score is now 2-2.

Kidderminster are now on the ropes somewhat, but look a big price at 5.70 to finish the job in 90 minutes - I will have a little interest at that price

Trophy in the balance

Well I nipped out to the shop after backing the draw at 10.00 at Half Time, and on my return Stevenage are right back in the game.

The draw can now be layed at 4.00 and I have bailed out for a profit - although a draw would still be my biggest winner.

I also came up trumps in the over 2.5 goals market.

With 3 live games still to come after this match, I am going to save some of my bankroll for later.

Kidderminster in command

2 goals from James Constable has put Kidderminster in total control of the FA Trophy final at Wembley.

The Midlanders are good value for their lead, and in truth shold have been out of sight.

My trade on Stevenage now looks dead, but I have managed to make up for that on the over 2.5 goals market where I am all in green.

Stevenage can't be any worse in the 2nd half, so I am ging to have a little interest in the draw at 10.00. Stevenage are 2.00 to score the next goal, but I favour the draw at 10.00 which hopefully would shrink significantly if Stevenage oblige

FA Trophy Final

The new Wembley hosts it's first cup final as Kidderminster take on Stevenage.

I must admit my knowledge of the two teams is fairly limited. Jeff Kenna and Iyesden Christie for the Harriers and Steve Guppy for Stevenage are probably the bet known players on show.

There wasn't much between the 2 sides in the Conference last season with Stevenage finishing 8th and Kiddermister 10th.

I am going to have a little interest in Stevenage, they were free scoring during the league campaign and their manager Mark Stimson is aiming for a hat trick of wins after leading Grays Athletic to back to back wins in the last 2 years.

I also fancy goals so will be getting involved in the over 2.5 goals market

The stadium looks absolutely magnificent, and with a healthy crowd in excess of 50,000 in attendance we should be in for a good game.

Advantage Derby

An entertaining start to a marathon of live football today.

Derby will take a 2-1 advantage back to Pride Park on Tuesday as a Steve Howard brace exposed severe defensive frailties in the Southampton defence.

Polish striker Marek Saganowski hit the woodwork twice but the Saints couldn't get back on level terms.

From a trading point of view, not the greatest of starts.

I was in an all green position on the match odds and over 2.5 goals markets but got involved in a couple of subsidiary markets - sending off and over 3.5 goals which wiped out the early gains.

Never mind, i'm rolling onto the FA Trophy final now and hope for better luck

Ram Raid

Derby have turned around the 1st leg of the play off semi final, after Pele conceded a needless penalty and Steve Howard converted.

For backers of a red card (like me) you have to ask serious questions of the referee.

Pele, already on a yellow card has blatently pulled the shirt of a Stephen Pearson in the box, conceded a penalty, but no yellow card followed.

30 minutes to go and there should be some more drama in this game

Frantic Play Off Fare

A breathless first half in the Southampton v Derby clash. Steve Howard has brought the scores level with a looping header for Derby

My trading has been going fairly well so far, I sided with Southampton early on and then bailed for a profit when they took an early lead. I have also made a very small profit on the over 2.5 goals market.

5 early yellow cards has several players walking a tightrope in what has been fiercely competitive encounter and I would expect to see a red card brandished in the 2nd half

Get in

An early goal for Southampton..

A brilliant left footed strike from youngster Andrew Surman puts them 1-0 up and gets my trading day off to a good start.

After backing the Saints at 2.16 I have now layed them at 1.45 to secure an all green position after just 9 minutes of the game.

Looks like we are in for an entertaining match

Southampton v Derby

A terrific atmosphere at St Mary's as the race to the Premiership hots up.

George Burley will be desperate to get one over on his former club and I have a slight fancy for Southampton to secure a first leg lead.

I have had a small bet on the Saints at 2.16.

Saturday Trading Bonanza

A number of games to get my teeth into today, kicking off with the 1st of the Championship play off semi finals.

Southampton host Derby County at St Mary's, in what looks like a tough game to call.

Derby finished 9 points ahead of the Saints in the regular league campaign, but that counts for nothing today.

I have to be careful not to allow an in built hatred of Derby that has festered for the last 24 years to cloud my trading judgement.

In 1983 at the Baseball Ground, Derby hosted Fulham in the last game of the season in the old 2nd Division - This match was controversially never concluded after Derby fans invaded the pitch.

Fulham required a win to be promoted back into the top flight of English football but despite their protests the match was never replayed and the result, a 1-0 defeat, stood.

The result consigned Fulham to the worst period in the clubs history as they broke up a young and talented squad and eventually found themselves in the basement league struggling for survival.

I fancy some goals in this game, so will be getting involved in the over/under 2.5 goals market.

Will update later

Friday 11 May 2007

Fulham appoint Sanchez

Fulham will go into the 2007/08 Premiership campaign with Lawrie Sanchez at the helm.

Whilst the decision was almost guaranteed after a win against Liverpool secured another season of top flight football, it has not been met by widespread enthusiam amongst the Fulham faithful.

The Whites will no doubt once again be one of the pre season favourites to go down, as they have been for the previous 4 seasons.

Significant transfer funds will need to be made available if Fulham are to survive next time around.

West Ham saga rumbles on

West Ham and their biggest benefactor the Premier League are trying in vain to draw a line under the lying and cheating that looks like securing their Premiership safety.

But the whole sordid incident will just not go away.

Further revelations about Tim Howard's transfer to Everton from Man Utd has re-ignited the debate about a 3rd party having a direct influence on club affairs.

The Premier League were fully aware of a potentially 'illegal clause' in the keepers contract and actually talked United out of including the clause.

Whilst the 'clause' didn't appear in Howard's contract, an even shadier 'Gentleman's agreement' between the 2 clubs stopped Howard appearing in the vital clash at Goodison. In the end his understudy and 3rd choice Ian Turner literally handed Utd the title.

How much was the West Ham punishment influenced by events at the top of the Premiership?

Whatever happens to West Ham on Sunday (i'm with the vast majority of supporters who hope that Sheff Utd and Wigan are in a position to engineer a result to condemn the crafty cockneys) this row will rumble on and on.

http://football.guardian.co.uk/News_Story/0,,2077404,00.html

Italian Game still not clean

They are 4th from bottom of their division, still a point away from safety and enduring a terrible campaign on and off the pitch.

Oh and they're as short as 1/10 to win on Sunday - can you guess the country? (source RPSport).

Parma enetertain Messina on the weekend and according to the odds compilers the game is already a certain home win.

Betting on end of season Italian games has been a minefield for bookies for years now, as teams help each other out. One good turn deserves another seems to be the motto in Serie A.

If Messina don't struggle too hard at Parma, maybe next season someone will repay them the favour.

For further insights into the end of season shennanigans in Serie A, I would recommend reading "The Miracle of Castel Di Sangro" by Joe McGinness (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Miracle-Castel-Di-Sangro/dp/075152753X/ref=cm_lmf_tit_4_rdssss0/026-6757427-7846806)

One of the best football books around, which uncovers some very shady dealing at the end of Castel Di Sangro's Serie A campaign

Thursday 10 May 2007

Spurs 1-1 Blackburn

Points shared at WHL.

Any early birds would have seen the advice to lay Spurs at 1.96 before kick off. Hope you had a profitable evening.

If I actually followed my own advice I would be loaded by now, but keep making small profits and then chasing goals which just haven't appeared this month!

Never mind, mistakes that are made this season will make me much stronger next season when I fully expect to be making a decent part time salary out of this game.

The target is £500 per month, which I hit in March when I started this game - I just need to rediscover my discipline and the profits will follow

Blackburn strike first

As talked about earlier, Pedersen supplies the ammo and Benni McCarthy does the rest.

Hope you followed the Football Trader and layed Spurs at 1.96, I have now bailed by backing Spurs at 4.60 to lock in profits.

Have a look at the goals markets, as I expect more to follow

Spurs v Blackburn (Part 2)

One of the key parts of becoming a profitable football trader is to have the term "No Bet" high up in your trading strategy.

3 or 4 big trades a month, with a decent strike rate would be enough to make decent profits.

It is an approach that I am serioulsly considering for next season, but in the meantime I will be trading on any match that I am able to watch on the TV.

From the Conference to the Champions League, from the Copa America to the Championship play offs, the Football Trader will be getting involved.

Tonights game is one of the hardest to call so far this season, not since the Liverpool v Chelsea Champions League semi final 2nd leg have I been so undecided about how to trade a match. It screams out No Bet, but how dull would that be?

So I have decided to take an opening position of opposing Spurs (lay at 1.96), although it is not with a lot of confidence.

Will update in running

Allardyce still in box seat

Strange goings on in the next Newcastle manager market.

Big Sam is still hot favourite at 1.28 to be installed at St James' Park, and if you have deep pockets that looks like buying money.

The only stumbling block appears to be a lack of enthusiasm on Tyneside for a man regarded as a glorified long ball merchant.

It is interesting that after speaking to a number of Newcastle fans, they insist they want a manager who plays decent football. They appear to be living in a Spurs like time warp, still pining for the good old days under Kevin Keegan.

As an outside observer I have seen Newcastle serve up anaemic performances at Fulham and Reading this year with little sign of exciting football and totally devoid of passion - a team crying out for the Big Sam treatment.

Aside from Allardyce, there appear to be 2 other candidates - Gerard Houillier (21.00) who amazingly topped a poll in the city's Evening Chronicle and Russian boss Guus Hiddink(26.00).

Surely the Newcastle board won't make another mistake, and will announce Sam Allardyce as their new 'gaffer' next week

Spurs v Blackburn

Looking forward to a proper football match tonight after the charade served up by Chelsea and Man Utd last night.

Spurs and Blackburn have both been playing well recently and should serve up an entertaining clash live on Sky Sports.

This is an extremely tough game to call and I have yet to fully commit to a recommended trade tonight.

Mark Hughes has done a great job at Blackburn, transforming his team from a snarling, aggressive beast into a free flowing creative outfit that still maintains a steely edge.

With 2 of the most effective wide men in the Premiership, Pedersen and Bentley supplying ammunition to McCarthy and Roberts, Blackburn have made a late charge for a Uefa Cup spot.

Anything other than a victory tonight at White Hart Lane will scupper hopes of a second successive European tour, so I expect them to go all out for a win tonight.

Big spending Spurs have been good to watch in the second half of the season and have been a profitable team to follow.

The imperious Berbatov is fast turning into one of my favourite players in World football and is an early tip to win the Golden boot next term.

Martin Jol seems to have settled on the dynamic Zokora and Jenas in central midfield and with the likes of Lennon and Malbranque in wide areas they carry a potent threat.

Blackburn are available to back at 4.70 which is a decent price, against a Spurs side that coasted to victory against Charlton on Monday.

I will wait and see the confirmed team news before committing to any trades, but my initial take on the match is that I will Lay Spurs (1.94) and get involved in one of the Goals markets (I am execting goals)

I will update nearer kick off

Wednesday 9 May 2007

Clint Dempsey: The $60m Dollar Man


Clint Dempsey, an American international and keen rapper became an instant Fulham hero with his crucial strike against Liverpool on Saturday.

His first goal in Fulham colours in front of a packed Hammersmith End, could be described as the most important goal in 128 years of Fulham history.

Other Fulham fans may point to Roger Brown (v Lincoln) or Rodney McAree (v Carlisle) or even Sean Davis(v Blackburn), but there is no doubt that Dempsey's first goal for Fulham will be hard to surpass in terms of value.

His goal will net Fulham a minimum of £30m next season and it is unlikely that he will score a more important goal in his career.

Many Fulham fans had seen an impressive montage of Clint Dempsey on You Tube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzOgcTYGG1E), but the man who bought him to Europe Chris Coleman seemed loathe to unleash him in the Premiership.

Trying to adapt to the English game is hard enough, but Dempsey, lacking match fitness and being asked to make an impact as a substitute in an unfamilair wide role had offered little sign of the legendary status soon to be bestowed upon him.

A decent performance as a sub against Arsenal in a more central role a couple of weeks ago, hinted at better things to come, and any doubts amongst the Fulham faithful were quashed on Saturday when 'Deuce' underlined the growing American influence by the banks of the Thames.

A look at Fulham's goals this season, shows how important Team USA is to the Fulham cause.

Top scorer Brian McBride has 9, Carlos Bocanegra has 5 and now Clint Dempsey has got in on the act. In fact over 40% of Fulham's league goals this season have come from American's.

Perhaps Fulham's new manager (whoever is appointed) should scour the United States to pick up a couple more bargain buys

The Odious Richard Keys

..is still banging on about the side that Liverpool put out against Fulham on Saturday.

What is wrong with that hairy handed gimp? Just get over it..

Bellamy, Alonso, Sissoko, Pennant, Hyppia and Reina are all established 1st team players and Gonzales and Fowler squad players - the fact that 7 of them played against Sheffield Utd in the 1st game of the season (a 1-1 draw incidently) seems to have passed unnoticed.

Fulham beat a full strength Liverpool side 2-o last season and who knows how they would have got on against a team that was physically and emotionally drained after a dramatic Champions League semi final win.

In case it has escaped the notice of Sky TV, Liverpool have an extremely strong squad, and it is Rafa Benitez job to deploy those resources effectively, something he has been a master of in Europe.

To suggest that Liverpool deliberately handed Fulham 3 points is slanderous, and an insult to both clubs.

Tuesday 8 May 2007

Football Trader strikes again

Exeter take the spoils in a dramatic penalty shoot out and secure a play off final at Wembley against Morecambe. And on this showing I would strongly favour them to be playing in the Football League next season.

The Football Trader advised laying Oxford to qualify at 1.20, and whilst I bailed out early for a guaranteed profit, I hope some others profited from another top tip.

Congratulations to Exeter and good luck at Wembley

Penalties again

Another Tuesday night and another penalty shoot out.

Oxford v Exeter may not be quite as glamorous as a Champions League semi final, but the outcome will mean just as much to supporters of the 2 Conference sides.

A whole season's work comes down to the lottery of a shoot out.

No point getting involved from a trading perspective, but given my current position an Exeter win would be more profitable.

Extra Time

How Exeter haven't managed to kill off Oxford in 90 minutes is beyond me, so despite a 2-1 win for the Grecians, we will face an additional 30 minutes.

With the exception of Billy Turley in the Oxford goal, Jim Smith's side have been poor, and only one team deserves to make an appearance at Wembley.

Exeter boss Paul Tisdale should be applauded for winning the tactical battle and an ultra positive approach - but wearing what looks suspicially like a cravate is a step too far!

As for trading on the match, I managed to guarantee a small profit on either side to qualify - I have still left a larger green on the side of Exeter.

Exeter Level

Lee Phillips has put the Conference semi final back in the balance with a well taken header at the back post.

1-1 at Half time and Exeter (and The Football Trader) can count themselves unlucky not to be in a much stronger position.

Unsurprisingly, there is not much liquidity in the 'To Qualify' market, with only £45,000 matched at the end of the first half. My lay of Oxford at 1.20 still stands, and the price has returned to around that level after Exeter's equaliser.

I am going to stay invested and hope that Exeter get rewarded for their progressive approach.

I have watched quite a bit of Conference football this season and at times the quality has been non existent, but tonight's match has been thoroughly enjoyable, with Exeter especially playing some decent stuff.

Oxford strike first

Totally against the run of play Oxford have taken the lead through Odubade, a right footed strike which the Exeter keeper should have kept out.

You can't expect that many 1/5 shots to get turned over, but if you can spot some value and your strike rate is good enough, you can profit from this way of trading.

Unfortunately tonight though an early Exeter goal was disallowed which would have guaranteed a decent profit.

As away goals don't count double, Exeter need 2 to take the game to extra time, and I am going to keep the faith with Paul Tisdale's men

Exeter robbed early on

A trigger happy linesman has denied Exeter the perfect start when he ruled out a perfectly good goal from Philips after 10 minutes.

The Exeter striker was incorrectly flagged offside after Oxford's ragged attempts to play the offside trap.

A crucial decison for both Exeter and the Football Trader, as early profits were flashing in my eyes.

At least the Grecians have made a decent start and look capable of turning around the 1st leg deficit. A succession of early corners have kept Oxford pinned back and I hope the side from the West Country can capitalise

Will update later

Allardyce Drifting

Betting on Managerial appointments is notoriously difficult unless you have inside information. That is one reason why traditional bookies are very cautious with these markets and I normally shy away from them, save for a bit of fun.

Everything I read in the public domain seems to indicate that Allardyce will take up the post at Newcastle after the last game of the season, when compensation clauses in his Bolton contract will no longer be triggered.

I advised backing Allardyce at 1.23 earlier today, but he has slowly drifted all day and whilst still a short price favourite at 1.30 the drift is beginning to worry me.

There is no significant money for any other candidates, in fact most of them are on the drift. Sven is now 2nd favourite at 26 followed by Houillier at 30, Coleman at 32, Pardew at 34 and Juande Ramos at 38.

I still can't see past Allardyce and would be astounded if Freddy Shepherd passes up this opportunity to employ the most effective English manager available - but then again this is Newcastle we are talking about!

I wouldn't advise getting heavily involved in this market, but it is an intriguing one to keep an eye on

Conference Play Off - The X-Factor

I'm sure there is a quiz question about how many League clubs there are with an X in their name, but for the life of me I can't remember what it is. I will try and remember what it is by the end of this article.

Whatever the answer, 2 former League clubs with the aforementioned X Factor meet in the Conference Play off Semi Final 2nd Leg tonight (live on Sky Sports).

Oxford looked nailed on for a swift return to the Football League after a blistering start to their Conference campaign. But a mid season slump allowed Dagenham & Redbridge to secure the title, leaving Oxford to try their luck in the play off lottery.

They made a great start in the 1st leg and secured a 1-0 victory at the 'other' St James' Park in Exeter, and according to the prices on www.Betfair.com are now almost nailed on to reach the play off final against Morecambe.

Oxford are available to lay at 1.20 to qualify and that looks far too short for a side that has failed to win at the Kassam Stadium on 12 occasions during the regular season.

1 goal for Exeter puts them right back in the tie, and although away goals don't count in this competition their looks to be some value in getting with the Grecians.

Lisa's brother, Adam Stansfield (copyright: the legend that is Jeff Stelling) can be prolific at this level and alongside John Mackie can cause problems for an Oxford side that sometimes feels the pressure in front of an expecatant and large home crowd.

I have layed Oxford to qualify at 1.20.

One quiz question I do remember on a similar theme is - Name the players that have played in the Premiership and for England who have an X in their surname (I think there are 3) - correct answers will win nothing except the privilege of being the first person to ever leave a comment on my blog!

Next Newcastle Manager

I had already assumed that the appointment of Sam Allardyce at Newcastle was a done deal.

However you can still get involved at www.Betfair.com where he is priced at 1.24 to replace Glen Roeder.

Surely the timing of his resignation and the departure of Roeder were not a co-incidence, so I am having a small interest in this market, as I believe that Big Sam will be in place (as an observer) by the weekend.

No other candidate is a single figure price, with Juande Ramos (11.50) and Chris Coleman (17.00) the next in the betting.

I would be amazed if Coleman gets the job after watching Fulham almost self destruct under his leadership, and Juande Ramos has bigger fish to fry, namely a potential Champions League campaign with Sevilla.

Monday 7 May 2007

Charlton down

Charlton will join Watford in the Championship next season as their 1st season post Curbishley ended in relegation.

I have little sympathy for them.

Over the last couple of years there has been rumblings of discontent about what Curbishley has delivered at the Valley but now reality has hit home.

The team that played against Spurs tonight was plainly not good enough, with only 3 or 4 or that group likely to be playing at the top level next season.

I got involved in the over 2.5 goals market, but Charlton created nothing all night and didn't really go all out for the victory that they so desperately needed, so a small losing evening for the Football Trader.

Berbatov enhances reputation

Spending big money on a foreign striker is always a big risk.

The likes of Sergei Rebrov and Steve Marlet came to the Premiership with huge transfer fees and were totally out of their depth.

The same can not be said about Bulgarian, Dimitar Berbatov. His first half strike against Charlton oozed class as he turned El Karkhouri on the half way line and cooly slotted beyond the helpless Scott Carson.

As things stand at HT, Charlton are down and Fulham have limped to safety.

My trading on the game was thrown into disarray when Berbatov scored after just 7 minutes, and my lay of over 2.5 goals at 1.79 looked in trouble. The price immediately went South, so I went in again and layed at 1.35 to bring down my average lay price to 1.57.

Thankfully a 2nd goal hasn't followed and I have been able to green out my position - current price for over 2.5 goals is 2.04, and I would expect more goals in the 2nd half.

Charlton have to push forward and there will be chances at both ends at the Valley.

I will update in the 2nd half

Charlton v Spurs

It is hard to get excited about some of the prices available on www.Betfair.com for tonights match at the Valley.

Over 2.5 goals is available to back at 1.78 which looks a bit short in my book, so I have had a small lay at 1.79 and hope to get out for a profit after the first 10/15 minutes.

The match odds also seem to out of line to me. Spurs are favourites at 2.18 and Charlton are available at 3.50 and those prices should be much closer together. I have had a small lay of Spurs at 2.20.

Overall I would expect both outcomes to occur (i.e. over 2.5 goals and a Spurs win) but hope to benefit from some in running trading to boost returns.

Will update later

Valley of doom?

It is all or nothing for Charlton tonight at the Valley.

Failure to secure the 3 points on offer against Spurs will condemn them to a campaign in the Coca Cola championship - and save Fulham into the bargain.

Spurs have been poor away from home for much of the season, but they have enough quality on the break to punish Charlton.

I'm looking forward to an exciting game and would expect to see some goals in what should be a dramatic night.

I will update details of my trades slightly later

Sunday 6 May 2007

Real Madrid do the business

Despite conceding a magnificant 1st goal to ex-WBA man Enzo Maresca, Real Madrid have turned things round to hand a profitable night to the Football Trader.

The introduction of Guti for the ineffective Raul turned the tide in Madrid's favour and they are now the biggest rival to Barcelona.

At last Football Trader is in the Green for the month of May, after a fantastic run of winning tips. Liverpool, AC Milan, Sevilla, Fulham and Real Madrid have all been advised at decent prices in recent days.

Hope you have been following the hottest free tipping site on the internet.

Roeder dumped by the Toon

Reports coming out of Newcastle tonight indicate that the worst kept secret in football is about to come out in the open.

Glenn Roeder sacking will be announced when the stock market re-opens on Tuesday, with Sam Allardyce appointed before the last game of the season.

You have to say that at last the Newcastle board will have got a managerial decison correct after stumbling from one nightmare to another.

Expect the Geordies to pillage the Bolton squad in the summer and be challenging for a European place next term

Real Madrid look good value

20 minutes gone in the big Spanish game tonight and Real Madrid are warming to their task.

Available to back at 2.10, which looks a bit short at the moment, but if the price drifts much further I will be getting stuck in.

Real Madrid v Sevilla

A huge game in Spain tonight. Get in some beers, relax and watch the best league in the world unfold before your eyes.

Barcelona are in the box seat, but tonight we have the 2nd and 3rd teams in the League meeting at the Bernabeu.

David Beckham starts for Madrid who are the form team in the Primera League.

A hard game to call, but expect both teams to go for it as a draw is not that useful to either side.

Sevilla were in action on Thursday in the Uefa Cup, and I think that this may just tip the balance in Real Madrid's favour.

I am going to watch the opening action before getting involved but will post later as the game progresses

Fulham secure Premiership saftey

As advised on Friday, Fulham managed to nick a crucial win against an understrength Liverpool side to all but secure another season in the big league - and save me a trip to Middlesboro.

There has been a lot made about the side sent out by Rafa Benitez, but don't get sucked into the lazy journalism and media reaction.

The Liverpool team that appeared at Craven Cottage was strong enough to beat a lot of teams in the Premiership and on the balance of chances should have beaten Fulham on the day.

Fulham have a major re-building job to do in the summer, but barring a nightmare sequence of results at least they will have the resources to compete.

Arsenal v Chelsea

Just got back from a weekend away and have missed most of the Arsenal v Cheslea game.

It always looked a tough fixture for Chelsea,but given events in Manchester yesterday they simply have to win to keep any faint hopes of a title defence alive.

With 15 minutes left an the score at 1-1 there is definitely value in backing over 2.5 goals.

Get involved at 2.06

Friday 4 May 2007

Euro King Benitez paves way for Fulham survival?

Stories coming out of Anfield today suggest that Liverpool will rest most of their A list players for the trip to Craven Cottage on Saturday.

Rafa has made it clear that he has no sympathy for Fulham's fellow strugglers if his team selection helps the Londoners claim a vital win.

With a few members of their Youth Cup winning team likely to feature backed up by other fringe players, Fulham will not get a better chance to secure salvation

With the fixed odds firms already priced up, Fulham are available at 11/5 which could be way to big come 3.00pm.

Fulham won this fixture 2-0 last season, and whilst I hate to tip up my own team, there were some signs of life in the 2nd half against Arsenal last week.

I haven't got access to Betfair at the moment, so don't know the exact prices available, but it may be worth backing Fulham early and getting out for a profit before kick off.

Thursday 3 May 2007

All Spanish Uefa Cup Final

As advised Sevilla qualify for the Uefa Cup final and will meet up with Espanyol in an all Spanish final.

A half decent trading evening, was slightly spoiled as the 3rd goal that I desperately needed just wouldn't come.

How Dani Alvez managed to miss a sitter in injury time is beyond me, but at least I have learnt some valuable lessons this week.

I have managed to call the results of all of the European matches this week and should be sitting on a large profit, but I have frittered away profits by getting involved in other markets . I need to get back to the discipline I showed in March when regular profits were flowing.

I will be away for much of the weekend, so trading will be lighter than normal, if I get a chance to update I will give my take on the weekend fixtures, but I think I may be too nervous about Fulham's crunch clash with Liverpool to think straight.

Where's the 3rd goal?

I need another goal in the Sevilla v Osasuna game to turn this into a decent evening of trading.

With about 10 minutes to go I am still hopeful of a goal

Sevilla v Osasuna

2-0 to Sevilla.

The holders are poised to progress to the final as 2 Brazilians, Alvez with the assit and Renato with the cool finish, have combined to give them a winning lead.

The match should really hot up now as 1 goal from Osasuna will put them in the box seat.

More goals look certain to follow and I am ging to try and ride the over 2.5 anf over 3.5 goal markets

Keane favourite to replace Sir Alex

With Man Utd on the verge of winning the League title or the first time in 4 years, it may be a strange time to focus on who is going to replace Sir Alex Ferguson.

However I read some interesting comments last night about Fergie's record.

Would the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona and AC Milan stick with a manager who has delivered just one European Cup in over a decade?

Rafa Benitez has made 2 finals in 3 years wth Livepool and has spent far less than Ferguson.

If the Glazers do decide that a new man could get more out of United's resources on the European stage, punters think that Roy Keane should be given the job.

A quick look at www.Betfair.com shows that his amazing first season in charge of Sunderland has impressed punters and he is priced at 6.00 favourite.

Only 2 other contenders have single figure quotes Martin O Neill (9.00) and Mark Hughes (9.20).

Although I wouldn't advise tieing up any money in this market, I can't see past Keane as Fergies successor.

Sevilla Lead 1-0

9 minutes before half time and Fabiano has forced his way through the Osasuna rearguard to give Sevilla a 1-0 lead.

Having advised backing Sevilla to qualify at 1.96, profits are now beckoning.

I don't fancy the lay price of 1.79 as I think Osasuna will struggle to score an away goal and the opening goal has given the favorites a lot more confidence, so I am staying invested and hoping for a 2nd goal.

Sevilla to retain Uefa Cup

Amidst all the hype of the all English final that never was, the prospect of an all Spanish final in Europe's secondary club competition has largely been ignored.

Espanyol take a 3 goal lead to Bremen tonight and despite the Germans having a a talented squad I can't see them recovering from their 1st leg disasters in Barcelona.

In the other semi final, Sevilla look lilely to overturn the 1 -0 deficit from the 1st leg against Osasuna.

Sevilla who thumped Middlesboro 4-0 in last years final have got even better this year and will almost certainly be gracing the Champions League next term.

Osasuna's star player and goal scorer in the 1st leg, Saldado is out through suspension and the Spanish U21 international will be sorely missed by the out of sorts Pamplonans.

Kanoute has been on fire this season and the less vaunted Kerzhakov, (a Russian international who will no doubt terrorise England in the Euro 2008 qualifiers) is also a handful.

I fully expect Juande Ramos' outfit to come through this and they look value at 1.96 to qualify

Wednesday 2 May 2007

Man Utd fail to turn up

Hope followers of the Football Trader had a profitable evening following the hottest tipster on the internet.

AC Milan were advised to win in 90 minutes (2.42) pre-match with Kaka and Gattuso highlighted as the key men.

With 17 minutes left and the score at 2-0 an in running trade of over 2.5 goals was also advised (1.85).

The Liverpool v AC Milan final was also called a number of days ago. The inside news is that Milan will go off as favourires to lift the trophy, but I think the market makers have that wrong and strongly fancy Liverpool to get "their" trophy back.

If you read through any of the older posts on this blog you will see that I have been profiting from opposing Man Utd - especially away from home.

United have been running on empty for a number of weeks and but for a horrendous goalkeeping error by Everton's Ian Turner they could be staring down the barrell of a trophyless season.

I think a 5 point cushion will be enough to see them home in the Premiership, but their performance tonight was woeful.

Don't be surprised to see Fergie back in for Owen Hargreaves very shortly as United need more drive and energy in the central midfield areas. Michael Carrick is a decent player when given plenty of time or in deep poistions, but he doesn't offer enough at the highest level to dominate against the best teams.

Over 2.5 goals looks value

With about 20 mins left and Milan 2-0 up surely United will push on and either score or leave gaps at the back.

Over 2.5 goals is trading at 1.85 and looks good value

United down and out?

Well as predicted Milan have put United in big trouble in the semi final 2nd leg, with the 2 key players highlighted pre-match - Kaka and Gattuso laying the platform for a place in the final.

Having advised backing Milan I bailed after the 1st goal to guarantee a small profit, so now I can concentrate on willing a Man Utd comeback.

Pre match concerns about Paul Scholes seem to have transmitted the player himself and he has yet to put in a meaningful challenge for fear of being booked.

United need to up the tempo all over the pitch, forget about the final and show some aggression and pace if they are to stand any chance of getting back into the game.

I'm hoping to see Louis Saha get a decent run in the 2nd half. The injury prone Frenchman is the best player I have seen in 30 years of supporting Fulham, and if his mental state is right he could just make a difference.

I agree with Fergie - next goal is the winner.

Milan can end Man Utd's treble dream

If United avoid defeat they will be in the Champions League Final in Athens

But shackling the incomparable Kaka who is the leading scorer in the competition proved impossible at Old Trafford and the Brazilian will ghost around the San Siro and could prove the difference between the 2 sides.

The pit bull Gattuso was forced off with an injury in the 1st leg and it was that change that helped to swing the balance in United's favour. His return will help Milan break up the rhythm and United may struggle to get enough possession to hurt Milan.

Conditions in the San Siro are more like a wet Wednesday in Manchester with the rain teeming down which should only add to the thrills and spills expected.

I am in agreement with Ray Wilkins who has just stated that his heart goes for Man Utd but his head favours Milan and I have had a small back of Milan to win in 9o minutes at 2.42

Yellow peril for Paul Scholes

3 Man Utd players are walking a disciplinary tightrope for tonights semi final 2nd leg in Milan.

The best English player of his generation Paul Scholes has already suffered the heartache of one missed final in 1999, when alongside Roy Keane he was forced to sit out of the win against Bayern Munich.

I really hope that Scholes can contain himself tonight and stay on his feet instead of lunging into challenges in midfield areas.

Man Utd have benefitted massively this season from Scholes' decision to retire from international duty after he was scandalously pushed aside for the massively overrated Frank Lampard.

Any readers out there who have ever got involved in the player performance markets with the spread betting firms will know what a genius Scholes is. His passing, control, movement and vision are second to none, and he is clinical in front of goal.

A place in the Champions League final would be a fitting stage for Paul Scholes, but I must admit I do fear the worst for him as he only knows one way to play.

Other United players on a yellow are Christiano Ronaldo and Heinze.

Ronaldo should be ok if he keeps his emotions in check, but you feel a bit like Paul Scholes, Heinze is a yellow card waiting to happen

Treble Chance

It is almost 8 years on since the best corporate jolly that I am ever likely to experience

I was lucky enough to be amongst the 90,000 crowd at the Nou Camp, Barcelona, for Manchester United's greatest achievement in modern times.

Solskjaer's late winner still sends shivers down my spine even though I have no affilation whatsoever with Man Utd.

The fact that Sir Alex Ferguson has guided his current squad to within touching distance of another treble is testament to his drive and the power of the Man Utd brand.

I hope that they can negotiate the final hurdle in the San Siro this evening, and on paper the task sounds more than manageable - avoid defeat an they will be in Athens.

Any regular readers of this blog will know I have been against Man Utd in their last couple of outings and but for a couple of trademark comebacks I would have been right in my belief that they were running on empty.

The beauty of trading in running on www.betfair.com has meant that I have been able to profit from United's first half woes against Milan in the 1st leg and at Goodison on Saturday despite their 2nd half heroics.

Can they muster one more effort tonight and justify odds of 1.68 to qualify?

Full match preview to come