Wednesday 28 January 2009

Premier League Update

Having spent most of the week at Conferences and Exhibitions, there has been little time for serious trading

I managed to watch an internet stream of Fulham losing on their travels once again at Sunderland, and despite the doom and gloom on the main Fulham messageboards, it was not the worst away performance by a long way.

Sunderland were poor, but with Jones and Cisse up front they have a great chance of staying up.

Fulham should have enough home games to just about survive - I hope you are on the 11.50 already advised on the Cottagers to be relegated, as we are well in profit already on that market.

Hull, Stoke, WBA and Middlesboro continued their losing streaks and all look vulnerable.

At the top of the table Liverpool failed once again, and as predicted are falling fast in the chase for the title.

Benitez is just not up to the task of securing domestic honours

Sunday 25 January 2009

January Trading Update

Trading has been fairly quiet for me in January, as christmas expenses and a couple of late night losing streaks in the casino have limited my bankroll.

But having failed with all of my other new years resolutions already, I have decided that this is the year that I start taking my football trading seriously.

My targets are fairly modest to start with, I am looking for a profit of c. £100 a month - just enough to finance a decent summer holiday for me and my 5 year old daughter.

In January, I have managed to accumulate a profit of £112.20, which would have been nearer £200 had I not dabbled in other sports.

Horses, Dogs, American Football and Golf have all been losers for me. So come February payday there will be no more speculative trades on things I know little about.

I have set myself 5 golden rules in pursuit of profits

My first golden rule is to trade exclusively on Football and ensure that nearly all of my bets are on the exchanges (no more phone betting with bookies after a few pints n the pub!)

Rule number 2 is to be more selective. Getting involved in every live match is great fun, but there is little future in this approach. The term 'no bet' has to enter my thoughts for the first time!

Rule 3 is the pursuit of small regular profits. As I am aiming for £100 per month, I don't need to win the whole amount on day1. Loads of times I have been sitting on an all green position and then decided to get involved in other markets looking to boost profits only to fail spectacularly.

Rule 4 is to improve my staking strategy and bankroll management. There is some great advice in this area from other successful traders like the brilliant Betfair Trader (http://www.thebetfairtrader@blogspot.com/) . In the past I have been totally erratic in this area, risking my whole bankroll on certain events, or withdrawing winnings to finance other expenses.

I will cover rule 4 in more detail in the coming weeks, once I have found a strategy the suits my trading style. Suffice it to say I will be keeping invested and hoping to see my bankroll grow.

My final rule is to maintain a record of all trades on this blog. The aim is to post as much as possible before the event, there is nothing like a bit of humiliation when it all goes wrong to focus your mind on when and what to trade on.

Hopefully some of the advice is worth following, but my profit & loss figures will probably be the best indicator of that.

In addition to my trading updates, I will continue to post my musings on anything football related.

Comments and feedback are most welcome and if you would like a link to your website added, just let me know.

Friday 23 January 2009

Bye Bye Bullard

"He's better than Steve Gerrard, He's thinner than Frank Lampard, Jim Bullard,Bullard"

Well Jimmy Bullard has chased the dollar and secured a big money move to of all places Hull!

Jimmy was a legend at Fulham, but the legend was built more by his cheeky chappy personality and the fact that he had 18 months out of a struggling side after scoring twice in his first 4 games for the club.

Fulham stood by him, financed his rehabilitation from a career threatening injury, and were repayed with less tham 40 appearances in a 3 year period.

His performances this season have been erratic to say the least, with losing possession probably the most common feature of his play.

To be fair, he has chipped in with some important goals, but his headless chicken routine has not gone down well with the tactically rigid Roy Hodgson.

I can't have a go at Jimmy, a 4 year contract at a reported £45k a week will set him up for life and help him to pay off the alleged 5 agents who have been hawking him around most of the 2nd rate teams in the Premier League.

Looking forward to March 4th when Hull visit Craven Cottage, my reaction to Bullard will depend on whether Hodgson can re-invest the money into a threadbare squad that is far from safe,

Thursday 22 January 2009

Man Utd v Spurs

It may be worth a look around some of the High Street bookies tomorrow to see what price you can get on a Man Utd FA cup win vs Spurs.

Most of the coupons available will have been priced up and printed before the Redknapp declarations on Wednesday night that he would field a veryweak side at Old Trafford on Saturday.

United were trading at 1.36 on Betfair earlier this evening, so there may be an arb opportunity if you can find any unsuspecting bookies who have yet to change their coupon price.

Jimmy Bullard

I mentioned yesterday that Fulham could get sucked into the relegation dogfight if they sold off Jimmy Bullard and/or Brede Hangeland.

When I go inundated with texts from gloating mates telling me that Bullard was going to Hull, I thought it was a wind up until I saw the breaking news on Sky Sports News.

£5m is not a bad price for a 30 year old with 18 months left on his contract and a dodgy knee, but Hull?

I will refrain from slating Jimmy until the deal is officially done, which is by no means guaranteed. Bullard's wage demands are going to be big, after his head was turned by spending a couple of weeks with the England squad.

Hull have already failed to agree terms with 2 other ex-Fulham stars, Steve Finnan and Luis Boa Morte who both rejected the advances of Phil Brown.

Aside from the financial agreement, the medical is by no means a gimme. A number of well connected Fulham fans have stated that Jimmy has no chance of passing a stringent medical.

If Hull are going to invest in a package likely to be worth in excess of £10m in wages and transfer fees, then they will need to be 100% sure that Bullard has made a full recovery from the serious knee injury inflicted by Scott Parker.

If Jimmy does move North (after leaving Wigan cos he wanted to move back to London)Fulham will miss his enthusiam and spark, but better players have been sold in recent years and Fulham have survived.

A swift move for Fabian Delph of Leeds would quickly ease the pain

Wednesday 21 January 2009

Premier League Relegation (2)

After tipping West Ham to struggle, I am perhaps not best qualified to try and work out what is happening in the Premier League relegation battle.

So who will be in the dreaded dropzone come May?

The Racing Post recently tipped up Newcastle at 9/2 for the drop, and everyone you talk to has a different 3 clubs in the frame.

Current form and the Betfair market would suggest that Middlesboro, Stoke and Hull are all downwardly mobile, but there will be many twists and turns in the coming weeks.

As a Fulham fan I am a born pessimist, and as everyone I talk to confidently procaims that Fulham are safe my worries grow.

Currently available at 11.50 on Betfair, Fulham have won just once in 8 games and still have a phobia of away games.

A magnificent defensive record started to unravel at Upton Park on Sunday as Fulham gifted 3 comedy goals to West Ham.

If that was merely a blip then Fulham will retain their Premier League status comfortably, but if the reported interest in Jimmy Bullard and Brede Hangeland results in a January sale, Fulham could well get dragged into the fight.

A trip to Sunderland and a home game against Portsmouth on 31st Jan are now key battles as trips to Old Trafford and The Emirates in February are likely to draw further away blanks.

I am going to have a small interest in Fulham as an insurance policy, i'm not convinced they will go down, but their price could well contract significantly if results don't improve.

Back Fulham for relegation at 11.50 with a view to trading out for a profit

Tuesday 20 January 2009

Man City get Bellamy not Kaka!

Man City have been a circus for many year, but it must be hard to take when you wake up in the morning dreaming of Kaka and go to bed with Craig Bellamy!

Bellamy is not a bad player, dont get me wrong, but at £14m sets a new benchmark for transfer excess.

Man City have now spunked £25m on Bellamy and Bridge to slightly strengthen a squad that did fairly well under the much maligned Sven.

I don't have a problem with City splashing the cash like many of the self righteous pundits I have heard laying all of the world's evils at City's door, I just find it amusing that they paid £18m for Jo and have now spent in excess of £100m to secure a mid table PL finish.

No doubt City will be a force in years to come, they may even have the good grace to pay for a stadium funded by the taxpayers of this country along the way.
Oh dear, Liverpool fail to win at home again.

Rafa Benitez, imo does not have the nouse or the bottle to win the PL title, and with Man Utd breathing down their necks it is surely only a matter of time before the Reds slip awayfrom the top of the league.

Not a huge surprise in these parts if you have followed the Football Trader who has been questioning Liverpools title credentials for the last couple of months.

Hope you have made a profit on the back of Benitez's bottlers

http://footballtrader.blogspot.com/2008/11/lay-liverpool-all-day-long.html

Monday 19 January 2009

Merseyside Derby

A bit of fun and games for tonight as Liverpool look to re-establish their lead at the top of the Premier League against Everton.

No trading in-running for me tonight as my lack of Sky/Setanta means I will have to down a few Peroni's instead of trading.

I have had a couple of small bets at fancy prices on 1st goalscorers, Riera at 16.00 and Alonso at 19.50 and have backed over 2.5 goals.

More of a watching brief then for me and I wouldn't be following my own tips if I hadn't already weighed in.

Good luck for any traders out there tonight what will surely be a feisty affair.

Wednesday 14 January 2009

Perfect Match?

Trading perfection?

Well tonight is as close at it comes, and only my pitiful bankroll has stopped me from making monster profits tonight.

If you have followed the advice tonight, you should be sitting on a 100%+ profit as Chelsea put Southend to the sword despite falling a goal behind.

I managed to get as much cash as I had available on Chelsea at 1.80 as they dominated but struggled to respond to Barrett's opener for Southend.

Ballack's equaliser on the stroke of half time meant there was very little to worry about in the second half as I could have got out for a profit at any time, but as soon as the impressive Kalou put Chelsea in front it was all over and profits were maximised.

A couple of speculative trades on over 4.5 goals at fancy prices (ranging from 3.40 to 4.00) put the icing on the cake as Anelka and Lampard coolly slotted home late goals to make it a perfect evening.

Not really sure what the layers were up to tonight, some of whom got it spectacularly wrong, lets hope for more of the same in the next few weeks

Follow the Football Trader in-running for the best advice on the 'net

Kalou strikes

Chelsea in front and a decent profit now locked in.

Shay Given that I have read tonights match perfectly, I am trying a spculative trade on over 4.5goals just to boost profits further.

One more goal and I will get out for a profit.

Fingers crossed

Ballack restores parity

Hope you have been following the Football Trader tonight as profits are flowing.

I am on Chelsea at an average price of 1.80, but there was some 1.98 available which is a crazy price to lay at.

I could get out for a profit now, but will stay fully invested to maximise profits.

Thanks to the generosity of the layers tonight!

Southend still lead

Surely now is the time to be lumping on Chelsea, currntly available at 1.77.

Wish I had deeper pockets, but I am weighing in at that price because one Chelsea goal in the next 20-30 minutes will yield a profit.

Lump on now!

Game on!

Chelsea's defensive frailties exposed once again as Adam Barratt heads home from a straightforward corner.

Chelsea still look very dangerous so not time to panic yet! Southend blocking everything with some last ditch defending

Over 2.5 goals looks like a sound trade, but not so sure about my HT/FT bet.

Still strongly fancy Chelsea to turn this round but not tempted by current quote of 1.54.

Will sit tight for the next 5-10 minutes before getting involved again

Chelea in crisis?

I can't see Chelsea being troubled by Southend tonight,despite the media doom and gloom

I am on Chelsea HT/FT @ 1.73 and over 2.5 goals @1.68.

Will update in running