Another revealing week in the PL as this topsy turvey season begins to take shape.
Starting at the top, I turned down a massive hospitality gig at Old Trafford on Saturday as the champions elect once again found a forgiving ref to bail them out.
The joys of being single dad are severely tested when a 5.30am finish is being missed - do I really want a jolly including free football, booze, lap dancers and a casino?
Never mind, most of the controversy washed over me as i have no access to Setanta and as a Fulham fan a defeat for any team in the bottom half is always welcome.
Liverpool once again failed to win at home, and any followers of this blog hopefully layed Benitez's men when advised many months ago. Despite the multi million pound budget, the Reds are miles away from sustaining a proper domestic challenge
The same could be said of Arsenal, who failed to capitalise on Villa's defeat at the hands of a rejuvenated Chelsea with another 0-0 draw at home to Sunderland.
The Gunners failed at a price of 1.44, but lump your mortgage on Wenger's side to beat Fulham on Saturday @ 1.46. A 46% return for 90 minutes work is just too much for a team that has never beaten Arsenal away in their history.
Talking of Fulham, which I do on a regular basis, how good is Roy Hodgson? we rolled over at Old Trafford last wednesday, but then produced our best performance of the season against WBA.
The massively underrated Bobby Zamora at last found the net as the Whites propelled themselves to the edge of a European place.
Swansea in the cup tomorrow night, £20 pay on the door is too tempting to turn down, and with Hull and Blackburn scheduled to visit the Cottage in the next 2 weeks this could be a prolific period for BZ.
Talking of Hull, another home defeat tonight against Spurs, your record signing and best payed (one legged) player out for the season - the Tigers are in deep shit.
Trading wise, I don't want to after event so will not go into detail about winning bets. I have a profit of c. £50 on the month to date but I spent £30 on beer,food and cigs tonight.
Small regular profits are great, but I would prefer more to support my lifestyle!
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
Monday, 16 February 2009
Eduardo back for Arsenal
The Brazilian/Croat Eduardo has marked his return from a serious injury with the opening goal for Arsenal against Cardiff.
The Gunners have a dream draw through to the semi-finals, with Burnley and then Hull or Sheffield Utd set to visit the Emirates.
I couldn't get involved in the game tonight given Arsenal's prohibitive price, although an 11 match unbeaten run suggests that they are building up a head of steam for the climax of the season. With Arshavin, Walcott, Fabregas and Rosicky still to come back into the mix, Arsenal shouldn't be written off in the hunt for trophies in May.
Despite the disappointment of missing out on a small profit tonight, my new found discipline is starting to pay dividends.
Just one trade recommended on the weekend, a lay of Swansea paid dividends despite the fawning media's reaction to the Welsh sides performance.
Rarely have I seen such an overaction to a home side failing to win despite trading as clear favourites and Fulham should have more than enough to prevail in the replay.
I am having a speculative interest in Arsenal to win the FA Cup @ 5.10, on current form I would suggest you get on!
The Gunners have a dream draw through to the semi-finals, with Burnley and then Hull or Sheffield Utd set to visit the Emirates.
I couldn't get involved in the game tonight given Arsenal's prohibitive price, although an 11 match unbeaten run suggests that they are building up a head of steam for the climax of the season. With Arshavin, Walcott, Fabregas and Rosicky still to come back into the mix, Arsenal shouldn't be written off in the hunt for trophies in May.
Despite the disappointment of missing out on a small profit tonight, my new found discipline is starting to pay dividends.
Just one trade recommended on the weekend, a lay of Swansea paid dividends despite the fawning media's reaction to the Welsh sides performance.
Rarely have I seen such an overaction to a home side failing to win despite trading as clear favourites and Fulham should have more than enough to prevail in the replay.
I am having a speculative interest in Arsenal to win the FA Cup @ 5.10, on current form I would suggest you get on!
Saturday, 14 February 2009
Swansea v Fulham - HT Update
Fulham lead at half time thanks to a fortuitous own goal and the tip of the day (lay Swansea) is a good un.
The 1-0 scoreline does not reflect the 1st half, as Swansea should have been two up, Mark Gower hitting a post and forcing a great save from Mark Schwarzer from point blank range.
However, despite a lot of pretty football, it is goals that count and as suggested earlier the traders have misread Fulham once again on their travels, which is great for those following my recent tips.
I have taken the profits at HT, so i can sit back and cheer on Fulham without worrying about trading.
The 1-0 scoreline does not reflect the 1st half, as Swansea should have been two up, Mark Gower hitting a post and forcing a great save from Mark Schwarzer from point blank range.
However, despite a lot of pretty football, it is goals that count and as suggested earlier the traders have misread Fulham once again on their travels, which is great for those following my recent tips.
I have taken the profits at HT, so i can sit back and cheer on Fulham without worrying about trading.
Swansea v Fulham
I have never quite worked out why Welsh clubs are allowed into the FA Cup, and to make things worse, in recent years they have done pretty well. In form Swansea fly the flag for Wales in todays early kick off and they fancy their chances of knocking out Fulham.
They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.
I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).
Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.
I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.
They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.
On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.
True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.
I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.
Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.
Good luck if you get involved
They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.
I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).
Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.
I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.
They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.
On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.
True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.
I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.
Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.
Good luck if you get involved
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