Monday, 28 March 2011

Money Management

I have spent the last few days scouring blogs and betting forums to try and pick up some tips on how to manage my betting bank.

Talk about opening your eyes. My previous attempts at trading have been laughably naive.

I regularly risked over 50% of my betting bank on any given event and fell into every trap available for the novice trader.

This strategy (or lack of it)led to some decent wins, but also regular visits to my current account as my betting bank ran dry.

Everyone has their own threshold to risk, and in the past mine has been gung-ho to say the least.Things have to change this time around.

They say the quickest route to success is to model someone who has been successful in your field, so my own plan is unashamedly based on the advice given on the excellent Betfair Trader website (see links)

My starting bank of £300 may be modest for a lot of heavy hitters but is an amount I can afford to risk without impacting my life in any major way.

The plan is to limit myself to a maximum liabilty of 10% of my starting bank per trading event.

If any profits accrue, over and above the £300, I will take 50% of the profit out of my account and let the remaining 50% swell my betting bank.

At this stage I don't plan to top up my betting bank if I hit a losing streak.

Clearly this staking plan is not going to give me overnight success, but hopefully a steady stream of small profits will see myself sunning myself in a more exotic location than Bournemouth for my 2012 summer holidays

Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Here we go (again!)

Is it really possible to consistently make money trading on Betfair?

I know from past experience that I can make profits in the short term, but a lack of strategy and discipline have always eventually caught up with me.

Well after a long time out of the game, i've decided to re-open the trading room.

Business will commence at the start of April when I can fund my account with a reasonable starting bank.

The plan is to record all of my trades on this blog and to keep me honest I will publish monthly profit and loss statements direct from my Betfair account.

If possible I will publish my position in advance of matches, although with a large in play focus this will not always be possible.

So what are my targets?

The dream is to fund a decent holiday for myself and my daughter next summer purely from trading profits. In my head this equates to c.£100 profit per month.

I can't work out if that is a conservative target or wildly optimistic and I suppose only time will tell.

Hopefuly any readers will get a few decent tips along the way and some enjoyment from the roller coaster that is about to begin again.

Sunday, 24 October 2010

Patience the key for underperforming Liverpool

I almost choked on my coffee this morning when I read the back page of the Racing Post. Frank Rijkaard 2/5 to succeed Hodgson screamed the headline.

That Liverpool would even consider replacing Hodgson so early in his tenure,is an indictment of how far a once great institution has fallen. In the 70s and 80s, the success at Liverpool was built on stability, continuity and patience both on and off the field. The model worked, making Liverpool a trophy gathering machine and one of the most legendary clubs in world football.

But those days have long since passed, a whole generation of scousers have grown up watching their nemesis Man Utd dominate the domestic scene along with monied johnny come latelys Chelsea.

A City famous for self pity and an over inflated opinion of their own sense of humour could be about to execute another depressingly poor joke if they don't take a reality check and get behind Roy Hodgson. Sacking the erudite Hodgson and replacing him with Rijkaard, a man whose managerial record is a flaky as a bad case of athletes foot, would be a disastrous decision

Liverpool fans are constantly prasied for their passion and knowledge of the game, so it is a major surprise how out of touch they are with both the appreciation of their current standing and also the tactics that they expect Roy Hodgson to apply.

The style of play that Hodgson will drill into his Liverpool team will focus on defensive stability and above all team shape. The methods are surprisingly simple, but it needs a team committed to this ethos and willing to put the collective before the individual.

For me, the first shoots of recovery were apparent at Napoli in mid week. A team stripped of the egos of Gerrard and Torres secured a creditable 0-0 draw away at Napoli on Thursday and for the first time this season it seemed that the players executed the Hodgson gameplan perfectly.

The likes of Jay Spearing and Jonjo Shelvey may well find themselves with more playing time than expected this season, as anyone not following Hodgson's strict gameplan will not be selected regularly. Hodgson doesn't do mavericks, just ask Jimmy Bullard.

For some unknown reason an away draw in Italy was not deemed acceptable by the media or large parts of the fanbase, but had Ryan Babel snaffled a great chance late on, Hodgson would have secured another great European result on his favourite stage.

From a neutral point of view the facts are simple. Liverpool have an average squad, which was expensively assembled by the wasteful and inexplicably popular Rafa Benitez. They do not have the resources to compete at the top end of the transfer market.

What Liverpool do need is some good old fashioned patience. Roy Hodgson worked his magic at Fulham because the squad and supporters bought into his footballing philosophy honed around Europe for over 30 years.

The accusations that he has never done it at a big club are fairly meaningless to me, the key question is whether the big egos and big earners are willing to knuckle down and get back to basics with Hodgson. If they do then Liverpools mediocre start to the season will soon be forgotten.

Liverpool to beat Blackburn @4/6

Friday, 27 November 2009

Fulham great value to beat Bolton

If Fulham could hand pick a Premier League home fixture to claim 3 points in, then Bolton Wanderers would be the opponents.

The Trotters have made the trip to Craven Cottage 8 times since both teams secured promotion to the top flight back in 2001, and Fulham have won 7 times with a solitary 1-1 draw.

The bookies quite rightly make Fulham favourites, and with many coupons being printed before the midweek 3-0 win against Blackburn, a price of Evs at William Hill looks far too big.

With history in Fulham's favour and Bolton's poor recent run of form surely this is a home banker?

Any long standing Fulham fans will immediately start to worry when terms like 'Home Banker' are being bandied about.

Hull last season and Derby before that were both Home Bankers that went wrong and despite the massive strides made under Roy Hodgson, Fulham can still throw in the odd quirky result.

The Whites have had their fair share of injuries this season, but unlike the Merseyside pair of Liverpool and Everton they haven't whinged and moaned but just got on with it.

That attitude has paid off as squad players like Chris Baird have come to the fore and can now be reinforced with the likes of Murphy and Johnson who are likely to see action on Saturday.

As one striker comes back in, another - Bobby Zamora - is a major doubt with a groin problem. Zamora, who scored a cracker on his home debut in the corresponding fixture last season is unlikely to be risked with CSKA Sofia and Sunderland around the corner.

So in form Clint Dempsey is likely to deputise up front after his brace against Blackburn.

Bolton were thrashed 5-1 by Villa in their last away game, but have actually picked up more points on their travels than at the Reebok.

They have already picked up maximum points at Portsmouth and Birmingham and under pressure boss Gary Megson will have them well fired up for Saturday.

Megson has changed Bolton's approach this season, slowly dismantling the hoofball culture he inherited from Sam Allardyce for something that actually requires a midfield. Whilst Fulham handled the aerial bombardment from Blackburn well on Wednesday, they will be far more comfortable against Bolton and a more attractive game is likely on Saturday.


Given current form and recent history, I make Fulham about a 4/7 shot to beat Bolton, so if there is any Even money or 5/6 still available on Saturday morning, then get involved.