Monday 22 December 2008

Zamora for England?

I was at Craven Cottage on Saturday to see Fulham outclass a poor Middlesboro side and mantain their impressive unbeaten run.

Unfortunately I forgot my golden rule of always backing Fulham at odds against in home matches as the layers once again underestimated the team with the best home record in the league

The 3-0 scoreline flattered Boro as Andy Johnson missed 2 one on ones and Bobby Zamora missed a couple of chances to increase the damage.

Zamora recovering from a hip injury came off the bench in the 1st half and changed the game.

His hold up play, distribution and physical presence have given Fulham an added dimension this season and makes you wonder why West Ham let him go. I watched Carlton Cole labour up front for the Hammers against Villa and there is no doubt which playerI would prefer in my team.

Sure goals have been hard to come by for Zamora, just the one Premier League strike against Bolton (a top quality finish), have opened him up to criticism especially amongst those who only judge strikers by their goalscoring record.

But in an era where Emile Heskey is suddenly back in favour and starting for England, goals are no longer the benchmark measure for English target men.

Zamora was prolific with Brighton in the lower divisions and although according to many he has never set the Premier League alight - it was him and not Tevez that top scored for West Ham when they cheated their way to survival a couple of years ago - Zamora is a far better finisher than Heskey.

Bobby may not make it into the England set up(although I wouldn't rule it out under Capello), but he is sure to start hitting the net for Fulham in the near future and is worth backing to score at anytime in upcoming matches.

Sunday 14 December 2008

Fulham

Fulham have an appalling record against sides newly promoted to the Premier League, already this season they have lost to both Hull and WBA and last season they couldn't even muster a win against Derby - so most supporters would have settled for a point before the trip to Stoke on Saturday.

Another goalless draw, number 6 for the season maintained Fulham's superb defensive record and extended their unbeaten run to 6.

Just 12 goals conceded in 16 games has given Fulham a great base to work from, but with target man Bobby Zamora unavailable against Stoke it was never going to easy to add to the goals for column which is the 2nd worst in the division.

Things might have been different had the referee and linesman not completely missed one of the most blatant handballs of the season. Not since Richard Dunne punched the ball out for a corner at Craven Cottage last week have Fulham been denied such an obvious penalty.

Danny Higginbotham's Superman impression was somehow missed by the officials, possibly due to the very muted appeals from Fulham players.

The game as a spectacle was pretty poor, although John Pantsil tried to liven up proceedings with some comedy acting after rubbing faces with Ricardo Fuller. Thankfully his cheating didn't prosper and he has lost the respect of a number of Fulham fans after his theatrics.

Roy Hodgson has got the basics right, hard graft on the training pitch on maintaing team shape and working as a unit is paying off, but wins at home are still required before the nerves of a relegation battle are banished.

Premier League Round Up

A great weekend for the Bookies yet again as none of the "Big 4" managed a win for the second time in a matter of weeks.

It is not just Santa with a bulging sack this Christmas, as draws for Celtic and Rangers as well meant there were no shortage of coupon busters this week.

Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez must have been reading my blog after quoting last week that his side had no chance of winning the Premier League this season.

Another failure to win at Anfield, this time against Hull means they are now 3 games without a win at home. T

The Robbie Keane situation goes from bad to worse as Benitez continues to handle the situation in the worst possible way. Surely his employers must be asking questions about his judgement and man management after splashing £20m on the striker and then totally ruining his confidence.

Great to see Jamie Carragher slice one into his own net, the squeaky voiced scouser is one of my least favourite players.

Arsenal are still fragile away from home and face a genuine battle with Aston Villa for 4th spot. Despite a good start against Boro, Aliadiere flying header gave Gareth Southgate's men a deswrved draw.

Man Utd will not be overly disappointed with a draw at White Hart Lane, where Gomes had his best game to date to deny Berbatov and co. United traditionally step up a gear in the 2nd half of the season and it would be no great surprise if they go on to retain their title.

Chelsea slipped up again at home, only taking a point against my relegation tips West Ham. Scholari's reign started brightly and ther away form is sensational, but they need to sort out their home form if they are to present a serious threat to United.

The relegation battle gets even tighter with great results for Sunderland and Newcastle and it is now perm 3 out of 15 for the bottom 3 places.

Blackburn and WBA are starting to be cut adrift and Paul Ince may be unemployed by Christmas despite reassurances from his chairman.

Wednesday 10 December 2008

Premier League Relegation

Plenty of rumours doing the rounds today that West Ham could go into administration in the next couple of weeks.

A 10 point deduction for the Hammers would be poetic justice, given the pathetic punishment meted out in the wake of the Carlos Tevez affair.

Robert Green, Matthew Upson and Dean Ashton (if fit) have already been strongly linked with a move away from Upton Park and i'm sure Lucas Neill would be off like a shot if he could find a club silly enough to match his massive wages.

West Ham are available at 3.55 for the drop, and regardless of the financial state of the club there appears to be some value there. If a trip to Chelsea on the weekend followed by a home clash with Aston Villa yield less than 3 points, then the Hammers could find themselves in the bottom 3 and the current relegation odds will look massive.

Have a small interest in West Ham to be relegated

Tuesday 9 December 2008

Chelsea v Cluj - 2nd half update

A great equaliser by Kone for Cluj has given Chelsea a few nervy moments, but Roma have now taken the lead against Bordeaux to take the pressure off Scholari.

Drogba has entered the fray to try and spare Chelsea's blushes.

I have backed Chelsea at 1.54 and could do with another goal to maximise profits on over 2.5 goals

Chelsea v Cluj - update

I have been out of the trading game for a while, so it is a surprise how quickly the odds can move in your favour (or against you if you have a poor opening position).

With no goals in the first 14 minutes the over 2.5 goals market has moved more than 25% in my favour.

Given my recent bad run of results I have taken a profit on the market by backing over 2.5 goals at 2.16

Cluj have come to London to attack and I think that there will be goals in the game.

So I am going to start slowly getting involved in the over 2.5 goals market. (cuurent price 2.28)

Chelsea v Cluj

Romanian champions Cluj will be well supported for tonights match at Stamford Bridge, as fans up and down the country hope that Chelsea can get a bloody nose in the Champions League.

But from a trading perspective they make little appeal.

Without Lampard, I expect Ballack to get forward and have had a small trade on him to score the 1st goal at 8.20.

I have also had a small lay of over 2.5 goals at 1.68 which could prove profitable unless Chelsea score early.

Updates will continue during the game..

Sunday 7 December 2008

Fulham maintain unbeaten run

Fulham came from behind against Man City to secure another valuable point and extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches.

Roy Hodgson's side have the joint longest unbeaten record in the Premier League, with only Liverpool matching Fulham's current record.

The draw with Man City at Craven Cottage was probably just about a fair result although both sides had chances to win the match.

Fulham can point to a stonewall penalty claim that was turned down when Richard Dunne punched the ball out for a corner and a couple of great chances for Bobby Zamora which went begging.

For their part, Man City were missing key players and could have sneaked the points when Zabaletta who was given the freedom of Craven Cottage for most of the second half almost scored with an angled drive that Schwarzer did well to fingertip wide.

Benjani's early goal knocked Fulham's confidence iand it looked like it was going to be a long afternoon as City took the early iniative.

But Fulham are far more resilient this season, Bullard and Murphy began to exert their quality on the game and the unfairly maligned Bobby Zamora gave Fulham a focal point up front.

Zamora was the catalyst for the equaliser, his clever through ball released Bullard to fire home from a tight angle.

The presence of Fabio Capello in the Riverside Stand may have been the reason for Jimmy's exuberant celebrations, but more likely was the fact that this was Bullard's first Premier League goal from open play in a Fulham shirt.

At 1-1 the game was there for the taking and Dempsey should have done better with a left footed effort after great approach play involving the hard working Andy Johnson.

Zamora produced the best piece of control in the game when he instantly brought down a booming clearance from Schawarzer and fired in a powerful left footed shot which unfortunately cannoned off his strike partner AJ.

The 2nd half was very scrappy, but Man City's right back Pablo Zabaleta was finding ridiculous amounts of space down the right flank and it looked like he may score or create a winning goal on 3 or 4 seperate occasions.

Fulham had chances of their own, with a Jimmy Bullard free kick brilliantly tipped over the bar by Joe Hart and Zamora unable to apply the killer touch when 3 yards out.

Both managers seemed satisfied with the result after the game, but given the missing Brazilians for Man City this was probably an opportunity wasted for Fulham.

Stand out players for Fulham were Murphy, Bullard and Zamora. The 4 wide players seemed to have an off day especially going forward - Pantsil and Konchesky both had problems with their distribution whilst Davies and Dempsey drifted in and out of the game

Fulham Player Ratings v Man City
Schwarzer (6), Pantsil (5), Konchesky (5), Hughes (6), Hangeland (7), Davies (5), Dempsey (5), Bullard (8), Murphy (7), Zamora (7), Johnson (6)

Wednesday 3 December 2008

Football's Worst Headlines - part 1

Burnley's hero Kevin McDonald is extremely popular with boss Owen Coyle after his brace knocked Arsenal out of the Carling Cup - however the headline on www.sportinglife.com website today is just taking things too far.

Coyle- Tea bagged Cup hero

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=soccer/08/12/03/SOCCER_Burnley_Nightlead.html

A quick look at Urban Dictionary confirmed my fears

1. Tea Bagged
TEABAGGING IS THE PROCESS OF ONES TESTICALS PROUDLY HANGING 2CM FROM your girlfriends mouth. Whilst dipping your love spuds in her mouth ask if she would like the teabag left in. I can tell you now Steve Irwin does not recomend teabagging with an old croc

2. tea bagged
when you stick your balls in someones mouth sometimes when they arent expecting it

Coyle will obviously stop at nothing to secure the services of highly rated youngsters.

Monday 1 December 2008

Liverpool Toil Again

Liverpool once again failed to score at Anfield recording a hugely disappointing 0-0 draw with West Ham.

Not sure why I even bothered getting involved in backing Liverpool players given my well documented antipathy towards the Reds.

Benitez has presided over successive goalless draws at Anfield and the deficiencies in his side have been exposed.

Booed off at the end despite the solitary point taking them to the top of the League, Liverpool should be sitting 5 points clear and enjoying the set backs at Chelsea instead of rueing a lack of cutting edge.

Liverpool v West Ham

The Premier League fixtures are completed on Monday evening as West Ham take on Liverpool at Anfield.

If Liverpool harbour serious title ambitions then they need to win tonight and establish a 3 point gap at the top.

West Ham buoyed by a win at Sunderland last week will fancy their chances to frustrate, much like Stoke and Fulham, who both kept clean sheets at Anfield.

On paper this looks like massive home banker even without the injured Fernando Torres.

Despite my reservations about Liverpool's ability to go all the way this season the Reds will surely create enough chances to secure the 3 points.

With Torres out it is time for Robbie Keane to step up and put in a performance. Keaneo has still yet to come alive at Anfield, but he hasn't become a bad player overnight and I expect some kind of spark tonight.

I also like what i've seen of Riera recent weeks, apart from against Fulham when John Pantsil had him in his pocket, the Spaniard has looked dangerous. He does have a goal in him and so I have had a small interest in Player Goal Minutes (spread betting market) for Keane (26mins) and Riera (9mins) at http://www.bethilo.com/

Later I am going to have a good look at the Premier League relegation odds,. With more than 10 teams involved there must be some value around if I can make a couple of solid early investments.

Friday 28 November 2008

Can't buy a winner

Another barren night last night as my Uefa Cup bets both flopped.

I got a run for my money in the Schalke v Man City game but the elusive 3rd goal didn't materialise, mainly due to a fantastic point blank save by Joe Hart to deny Asamoah.

City look like they are starting to get their act together under Mark Hughes, typical that the next live match I am going to sees them visit Fulham, who have a habit of meeting in form sides.

The Manchester derby on Sunday is now eagerly awaited.

As for AC Milan, they should have been out of sight against Pompey in the 1st half with Inzaghi hitting the woodwork twice.

A few Peroni's eased the pain and as Pompey scored their first and then second goals my drinking partner layed then at 1.50 and then 1.03 - Inzaghi's predatory strike to equalise sparked celebrations, but unfortunately not for me.

Thursday 27 November 2008

Uefa Cup Bets

Thursday night and a feast of football on Channel 5, not a statement I could have made when I started my trading career.

The Uefa Cup for all its faults (make it a proper cup competition ffs)is a lot stronger this season and I have 2 small bets on the go.

Schalke & Man City have served up an entertaining 1st half which opened up even more after Benjani's far post finish.

There looks like more goals to come, and I am on over 2.5 goals at 2.04.

Later tonight European royalty AC Milan look too strong for an understrength Pompey side.

A quote of 2.28 looks too big to turn down and I have invested a small amount on the Italian giants.

I will be out and about this evening, supping a few Peroni's so will be unable to trade in running - but I am yet to be convinced by Tony Adams stewardship and a midfield likely to include Fulham cast offs Sean Davis and Papa Bouba Diop will struggle against Kaka et al.

Lets hope that i'm back to form after a lengthy lay off!

Wednesday 26 November 2008

Lay Liverpool all day long

Liverpool's annual European tour gathered momentum as a Stevie G strike against Marseille guaranteed progression from a tough looking group.

The catalyst for nearly all things good at Anfield was sorely missed last Saturday as the reds title hopes took a big knock with failure to win against a Fulham side that normally turns to jelly away from Craven Cottage.

Liverpool's frailties were cruelly exposed in the 0-0 draw with Roy Hodgson's surprisingly resilient Whites.

No guile and a squad not good enough to deal with the tinkering imposed by a manager obsessed with European success will condemn Liverpool to more barren domestic seasons unless the Anfield hierarchy take a close look at the Spaniards weaknesses.


Watching Saturday's game through an alcohol induced fog did little to dispel the thought that Benitez is still 3 or 4 players short of maintaining a genuine title challenge - and given the support and investment he has been given the lack of quality is inexcusable.

The full backs of Arbeloa & Aurelio/Dosena are simply not up to it - the only position in the modern game to get any sort of space needs to offer much more than the current incumbents.


Lucas is in danger of becoming the least talented Brazilian since the lumbering Serginho ruined the best Brazilian side of all time in 1982. Even the notorious Kop could not hide their displeasure when Lucas wasn't replaced on Saturday.

Robbie Keane spends more time moaning and appealing than actually playing football and as the great Fernando struggles for goals Liverpool will surely once again fade into 3rd or 4th place.

The bookies and traders on Betfair already have their measure and it is only a Liverpool obsessed media that are still clinging to the Scousers as genuine title contenders.

Sunday 16 November 2008

Fulham bring Spurs back to earth

Hope you were all on Fulham at fancy prices as advised earlier in the week..

The quotes from leading bookmakers - 9/4 generally available on Fulham - bore no relation to the real world and once again highlighted that betting on reputation and size of club is an expensive game.

I made Fulham at best a 6/4 shot to overcome an average Spurs side on Saturday, so was rubbing my hands with glee whilst reviewing the opinions of layers up and down the country.

Just backing Fulham blind in every game would have yielded a level stakes profit so far this season. Bearing in mind their away day achilles, any odds against quote on Fulham at Craven Cottage should be hoovered up immediately. (Home to Man City on Dec 6th may well pay for Christmas unless the so-called experts wake up in the next couple of weeks)

Fulham are a tough proposition at the Cottage, solid at the back and with enough flair and cutting edge to trouble far better sides than Spurs.

The Zamora - Johnson partnership is beginning to bear fruit and it is surely only a matter of time before Roy Hodgson masterminds an improvement in an embarrassing away record.

As for Spurs, they will get nowhere fast with Gomes the clown in between the sticks and the limited Darren Bent up front on his own. Don't get me wrong, Spurs are in no danger of going down despite still being in the bottom 3, but this latest defeat will do no harm to the fawning media and their deluded fanbase.

Tuesday 11 November 2008

Vela Time

Carlos Vela - remember the name.

Most football fans you meet nowadays know very little outside of their Rooney's and Ronaldo's (excuse readers of this blog, who obviously have a fine grasp on the game).

Vela is the latest light to illuminate Arsene Wengers reputation, a Mexican with a left foot to die for.

One of his goals against Sheffield Utd in the last round of the Carling Cup was one of the best I have ever seen - lobbing the keeper (Paddy Kenny?) from short range - pure genius.

I haven't even seen his goal tonight, but no doubt the youngster has given the genius Wenger a selection headache

Wenger, sent the Mexican Vela out on loan last season to Real Osasuna and the teenager was regularly the best player on view.

Had he been English ala Walcott, Vela would have had his chance by now, but his Carling Cup magic and one of the best left foots in the modern game will make Vela a star in 2009.

Have a speculative punt on Mexico to perform well in 2010 World Cup @80/1

Leaky Rearguards

Having just completed a course on diversity, the title of this article is probably a big no-no,but any Premier League teams that have designs on survival in this tightest of tight seasons would do well to address the leaks.

A look through the history book re-inforces that teams with the worst defences are relegated 9 out of 10 times.

Build from the back, keep clean sheets and grind out results - its boring for a lot of Premier League fans, but all credit to Roy Hodgson at Fulham.

He inherited a dogs dinner from Lawrie Sanchez (a man who should never work in football again in any capacity) and has slowly organised a renaissance by the Thames.

Brede Hangeland remains the best kept secret in the PL, and his partnership with the experienced Hughes gives Fulham the platform to field a midfield 4 that should get rolled over week in week out.

Gera, Davies, Bullard and Murphy break every stereotype and cliche in football - where is the ballwinner? where is the athlete? where is the width? where is the power?

Despite their obvious inadequacies, 4 footballers who can pass the ball, keep possession and play within the tight regime layed down by Hodgson are providing an adequate screen to frustrate more vaunted opponents.

Team shape and organisation are the basics for any team and Hodgson probably the most technically astute manager outside of Arsene Wenger has embraced the basics to revive the fortunes of the super whites.

Rejuvenated Spurs visit the Cottage on Saturday with their ridiculous band of quasi fans predicting a comfortable win against their 'small neighbours'.

The Odds compilers have also made their standard mistake in pricing up a game based on tradition and size of club and make Spurs hot favourites to damage Fulham's strong home record.

I fancy Hangeland & co to nullify the threat of Darren Bent and an overrated Spurs side at fancy prices.

My bias may lead me to the poorhouse, but backing Fulham at home at 9/4 is just too good to miss.

Come on Zamora, time to deliver!

Wednesday 2 July 2008

Wahey, I'm Back!

Well serious computer problems, a new job, moving house and lack of internet access (and money) have kept me from blogging for over 6 months, but i'm back fresh and raring to go in time for the new season.

I won't bore you with any after eventing from Euro 2008, suffice it to say I made and lost some serious money throughout the tournament, coming out with my nose just about in front.

My task for the new season is to try and develop the most important skill that any trader/punter can possess - that all important self discipline.

Greed and betting for betting's sake have been my biggest downfalls in recent seasons but those traits will be put to bed once and for all this year.

In the coming weeks I will outline my financial targets for the new season and how I am going to get there.

In the meantime my trading will be kept to a bare minimum until I can make a judgement on the comings and goings across Europe. However if I spot any interesting bets I will start to lump on and will keep a record of all my betting activity right here.