Monday 30 April 2007

Champions League

Looking forward to the Champions League matches this week.

If I had to stick my neck out now I would go for a Liverpool v Milan final which i'm sure would be a decent price.

With Carvalho unavailable for Chelsea, Peter Crouch could wreak havoc at Anfield and I'm sure we're in for a controversial night.

As much as I would like to see Man Utd progress in the San Siro on Wednesday, I still think that Milan have enough in their locker to record the required narrow victory .

Reading 1 v 0 Newcastle - Full Time

Well they say always trust your first instincts, and earlier on I fancied Kitson and Doyle to outshine the more illustrious strike partnership of Owen and Marttins, and so it turned out.

The gingerest bloke in the Premiership Dave Kitson scored his 1st goal in the Premiership since August to secure another 3 points for Reading.

A bit of a frustrating night for trading, as profits gained on the over/under 2.5 goals market were lost on backing Newcastle.

Time to get back to basics and start banking some small regular profits instead of trying to make too much profit from a small bankroll. I need to get back to the strategy that served me well in March.

Reading v Newcastle

0-0 after 25 minutes, so I have taken a small profit on the over/under 2.5 goals market.

Michael Owen has been caught offside on numerous occasions, but i fancy him to break the trap at least once this evening, and Newcastle look good value to take the iniative.

With Owen and Martins pacy up front getting good support from Sibierski and Dyer the Toon look a good value trade - back at 3.80

Updates to follow

Owen Returns

All eyes will be on Michael Owen at the Madjeski Stadium tonight for a mid table clash with Reading.

These end of season fixtures are hard to call, but I expect it be be a fairly tight encounter, especially in the first half.

I have had a small interest laying over 2.5 goals @2.04, so am keeping my fingers crossed that there will be no early goals.

I have left the match odds alone, but expect the less vaunted partnership of Doyle and Kitson to outshine Owen and Martins.

Updates to come later

Sunday 29 April 2007

The Yo-Yo begins

Congratulations to Sunderland and Birmingham who thanks to Derby's defeat at Palace today have bounced back to the Premiership at the first attempt.

Both teams had a sticky start to their campaigns, with Steve Bruce almost sacked in October as The Blues slipped to 9th in the table, and Niall Quinn's short lived managerial craeer taking the Mackems to the bottom of the table.

With WBA looking to secure a play off berth, we could see all the teams relegated last term getting back in at the first attempt.

The parcahute payments that they receive dwarf the income of the other Championship sides, and with the TV money escalating next season the gap between the haves and the have-nots is going to grow further.

Expect the teams that come down this year to have a good shot at promotion next term as we will start to see a succession Yo-Yo teams.

Both promoted clubs have the infrastructure in place to consolidate in the top flight next term and both are promising significant investment, it promises to be a massive scrap in the lower reaches of the Premiership next season.

Beckham back for England?

Not surprisingly Steve Maclaren has been keeping a low profile in recent weeks. His wafer thin managerial CV has been shown up as he has lead England to the verge of missing out on Euro 2008.

His big statement, dropping David Beckham was menat to signal a new era, but England have somehow gone backwards since the World Cup debacle and deperately need to get a result against Estonia on June 6th.

I hope McDonut is watching Real Madrid dismantle Athletico Bilbao tonight.

David Beckham has been recalled to the starting line up and has already served up another goal for Sergio Ramos (his 2nd assist in 2 games). Aside from that Beckham looks fit and sprightly, he has nearly scored one himself after a well timed run into the Bilbao box and his general play has been excellent.

I am not one for all of the David Beckham hype(and he has got another stupid hairstyle), but with the Spanish season running well into June, he will be the only English player in active service at the time of the next qualifier.

I haven't found a price yet for Beckham to be recalled to the England squad, but on current form he would have every chance of adding to his 95 caps.

But does Steve Maclaren have the balls to select him?

Fulham slip further

Even the most optimistic of Fulham fans expected to get nothing at The Emirates today. In fact I think most would have taken a defeat that didn't fatally wound goal difference.

So a 3-1 reverse shouldn't have been that much of disappointment, but the manner of the defeat was hard to take.

After conceding within the first 5 minutes, Arsenal once again missed a hatful of chances and to get in at the break only 1-0 down was a great outcome.

In the 2nd half Arsenal went to sleep, Diop began to boss the midfield and thanks to the antics of Jens Lehmann Fulham got back in the game with a great finish from Simon Davies.

With just 10 minutes left and a vital and unexpected point almost in the bag, Fulham and their caretaker boss Lawrie Sanchez showed incredibe naivety and tried to win the match.

Gung-Ho football against Arsenal is asking for trouble and with Right Back Volz the furthest player forward and 5 others committed to attack, Fulham were picked off with ease by one of the best counter attacking outfits in Europe.

Fulham have now won just once in half a season, and with the hapless egomaniac Lawrie Sanchez in charge it looks unlikely that they will pick up a win in their 2 remaining games (Liverpool H and Middlesboro A).

As Fulham's slide continues, the cards just keep falling into place for West Ham. Their final home game of the season against Bolton has just been made all the easier by Sam Allardyce's decision to resign today.

West Ham now look in pole position to avoid the drop and the odds available on www.Betfair.com are still generous. I have already advised laying West Ham for the drop at 1.33, and they are still available to lay at 1.97 - I would suggest filling your boots again at that price.

Saturday 28 April 2007

Relegation Update

Hope you're following the some of the hottest tips available on the internet here @The Football Trader.

Having increased a very small bankroll 15fold within the last 24 hours, I have also been reading the Premiership relegation battle superbly.

In yesterdays post I advised laying West Ham to be relegated at 1.33, they are now available to back at 1.91, so you could take a c.40% profit right now, or stay invested till next week when a home win against Bolton should be enough to secure safety.

I also advise backing Fulham @4.00 to be relegated, their back price is now 3.05.

Whilst results are not predicatable at this stage of the season, it now looks like a straight fight between Fulham and Wigan for that 3rd relegation spot (Charlton are down), and Wigan have the easier fixtures.

It is going to be a nightmare few weeks for all Fulham fans out there

Let the nailbiting commence

Well at least Fulham can't lose today, with their fixture at The Emirates delayed until Sunday.

So instead I have to endure watching other games to see how they affect Fulham's fate.

The 2 key games today are Blackburn v Charlton and Wigan v West Ham.

I will be watching the live stream from the JJB (technology permitting) and really hope that West Ham get their just desserts and get a good beating.

Everything has fallen into place for the Hammers, no points deduction (ridiculous decision), and now it looks as if Man Utd will have already secured the Premiership title before their last day clash with West Ham.

Blackburn looked a decent outfit at Craven Cottage last week, and I hope they can maintain that form at home to Charlton.

Whatever happens, the battle for the drop will go to the last day of the season.

United on the brink

Well what a day at the top of the Premiership.

Man Utd move 5 points clear at the top of the table and have all but wrapped up their first title since 2003 as Chelsea failed to do the business at home to Bolton (2-2).

Some excellent trading today as once again the beauty of a strong opening position was well illustrated.

As I wrote earlier I fancied Man Utd to struggle today, and as they found themselves 2-0 down I was able to trade out of my position to guarantee a profit.

I have had quite a remarkable couple of days, trading with ridiculously low stakes as I await pay day!

Last night, my Betfair balance was a grand total of £0.39. I managed to lay under 4.5 goals in the Sunderland v Burnley game last night and ended Friday with a balance of £2.80.

My trading on the Everton v United game now leaves my balance at £6.02.

I have managed to increase my meagre bankroll 15fold in less than 24 hours! How I wish I had been trading with bigger stakes..

Hopefully some of my fellow traders have been following my tips

Betfair broken?

Betfair are having technical problems, which means their site is not working at the moment.

Not good news for thousands of traders out there, especially those with a position on the Everton v Man Utd game.

Everton have doubled their lead thanks to a stunning strike from Manuel Fernandes and many traders will be mightily annoyed by Betfair

Trading Update

With the 1st half drawing to a close at Goodison Park, my trading strategy has worked perfectly so far.

Laying United @ 1.72 was a smart move and I quickly moved into an all green position when Stubbs' deflected free kick gave Everton the lead.

Everton look light up front though and the combative Vaughan is lacking any kind of support. As the game progresses I expect United to exert more and more pressure and introduce the mercurial Christiano Ronaldo.

United are available to back @3.85, which looks too big, if as expected they score the next goal.

Chelsea have come from behind at Stamford Bridge to lead at HT as the title race is thrown wide open. United are now 1.70 to claim their first Premiership title since 2003.

United look vulnerable at Goodison

With a hazardous trip to Milan on the horizon, Man Utds season could be determined in the next 4 days, starting at lunchtime wth a tricky looking visit to Everton.

Injury problems are still causing problems for Fergie's side and their makeshift back 4 will be in for a battle at Goodison.

Everton are looking good for a place in the Uefa Cup and have won the last 3 at home, whilst United's away form has been shaky of late. They have lost their last 2 away games at Roma & Portsmouth and scraped wins at Anfield and Craven Cottage with late winners.

United are odds on to grab the 3 points, but there is definitely some value in laying them @1.72.

I have already advised a lay of Man Utd for the title at 1.35 (18/04/07) and the price has already moved in our favour (available to back at 1.41).

With Chelsea looking likely to take the 3 points from their game with an injury hit Bolton side, United's title odds could be much longer come 3.00pm this afternoon

Friday 27 April 2007

Great Escape for Hammers?

I should nail my colours to the mast early on in this article, as a Fulham fan I was desperate for West Ham to receive the proper punishment for playing ineligible players in the Premiership.

The whole Tevez, Maschareno episode has put a cloud over West Ham's season, and today's findings from the FAPL investigation are almost laughable.

In effect they would have deducted points, but we are now too near to the end of the season for them to enforce the proper punishment.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of the investigation, a line has now been drawn under the whole sorry episode.

Tevez is free to play in the remaining games, and West Ham boosted by this news now have a great chance of escaping the drop.

The prices available in the relegation battle have been wrong for a number of weeks now.

West Ham are available to lay at 1.33 and there is definitely some value in getting with the Londoners.

I fully expect them to get a result at Wigan tomorrow, and then 3 points from a home clash with a faltering Bolton side will probably be enough to secure an unlikely salvation.

Fulham are still available to back for relegation at a far bigger price than is realistic (4.00). The Whites are in freefall and are unlikely to pick up another point this season, and their goal difference could be fatally wounded at Arsenal on Sunday.

Gordon Taylor, chairman of the PFA was quoted today "Fans of other clubs may not be [happy with the verdict] but if you need to stay in a division because another club has been deducted points it's not the sporting ethos you would want."

"I can't believe anyone would want to stay up that way."

Well Mr Fat Cat Taylor, I know at least 20,000 Fulham fans, loads of Charlton, Wigan and Sheffield Utd fans who would disagree

April Update

After a sparkling debut month for my trading in March, April has been a much quieter month.

Cashflow problems have limited my trading, and I have missed out on some great opportuinties to push my profit levels up towards the £1000 mark.

Having just reviewed my P&L, I made £576 in March, but have lost £73 so far in April.

I am very confident that I can get back into the green in the coming months, as I have passed up significant profits already this month.

Anyone reading through this blog will know that I would have made money on the Valencia v Chelsea game and also the Man Utd v Milan game, as well as reading the Premiership relegation battle brilliantly so far (I hope some of you were on)

A small profit of £1.90 has been locked in tonight at the Stadium of Light (over 4.5 goals), as Roy Keane's Sunderland look likely to bounce back to the Premiership at the first attempt.

Look out for Carlos Edwards' stunning goal if you get a chance, a cleaner strike you will not see.

With a crowd of nearly 45,000 in attendance and significant funds likely to be available next season, Keano looks likely to establish the Mackems in the top flight in the next couple of years.

Tuesday 24 April 2007

Rooney Rooney

A late strike from Wayne Rooney gave Man Utd a 3-2 1st leg advantage and keeps them in with a fighting chance of making the final.

Milan were cruising in the early stages of the 2nd half, but the loss of Gattuso left a big void in their midfield which United exploited to the maximum.

Rooney gave a turbo charged performance in the 2nd half, dragging them back into the match with a close range finish after a sublime assist from Paul Scholes, and then a stunning late winner.

2nd leg is now set up for a classic, and although I still fancy Milan to progress, I will be rooting for United

Man Utd in trouble (HT Update)

Having recommended opposing Man Utd to qualify against AC Milan, the 1st half has gone much as expected.

Despite an early Ronaldo goal (scrappy header from a set piece), Milan have dominated possession and Kaka has exploited a wafer thin back 4.

2 away goals conceded, and a lack of cohesion in open play gives United a mountain to climb.

After laying Utd to qualify at 1.83, they can now be backed at 3.65 for a decent profit. That however is a very poor price (Should be more like 4.00+), so I would stay invested.

Hope you were on

Value in opposing Man Utd

AC Milan look more than capable of denying an all English final and I will be laying Man Utd to qualify @ 1.83.

United have been stuttering of late, and their 7-1 demolition of Roma has gone a long way to masking an underlying dip in form.

With injuries catching up on Alex Feguson's men, Milan have the ammunition to follow up on their success againt Man Utd from 2 season ago.

Anyone who reads this blog knows that I favour Chelsea to overhaul United in the Premiership, and a price of 9.60 for Man U to finish the season potless is too big.

As ever the Ronaldo & Rooney threat gives United a chance, but their back 4 looks weak and the continued absence of Louis Saha means that striking options are limited.

Expect a tense night at Old Trafford.

Wednesday 18 April 2007

West Ham on the brink

A crushing home defeat by the Champions elect has left West Ham hanging onto their Premiership lives by their fingernails.

The 4-1 victory for Chelsea keeps them on the tail of Man Utd, and their relentless pursuit keeps the pressure on United big style.

The margin of victory took some of the heat out of the match, but we still saw 7 bookings (Boa obliged with a yellow late on, as predicted).

So a small profit of +6.00 on the night.

Just a quick comment about Michael Essien, when he arrived from Lyon with a huge transfer fee on his head a few eyebrows were raised, but his performances in recent weeks have shown what a talent he is. Described to me by a good judge as the best Right Back in the country, Essien was back in his preferred midfield role tonight and totally dominated proceedings.

I still have a sneaky suspicion that Chelsea will overhaul United in the title race, and a lay of Man Utd @ 1.35 looks like a decent investment

West Ham v Chelsea - HT Update

Well I did predict fireworks in this game and the 1st half hasn't disappointed.

2 stunning goals from Shaun Wright-Phillips, with a Carlos Tevez effort sandwiched in between gives title chasing Chelsea a 2-1 lead at the break.

3 Bookings in the 1st period means I could get out for a profit at HT on my bookings trade, but expect an even more frantic 2nd half, so will be staying invested.

Boa Morte has been virtually anonymous so far, and he doesn't find the net he should at least do the honourable thing and get his customary yellow card!

More to follow

Last chance for the Hammers

Really looking forward to the West Ham v Chelsea game tonight.

A defeat for West Ham will all but condemn then to the 2nd Division next season, and Chelsea desperately need the 3 points to maintain their incredible chase of Man Utd.

With both teams desperate for the 3 points, I fully expect some fireworks and would be looking at a high number of yellow cards (and possibly a senging off).

The spread firms are also expecting a busy night for ref Mike Dean with a quote of 55-60 (10 points for a yellow, 25 for a red). A speculative buy of bookings is advised (£2 a point @60)

Chelsea are looking to extend their run of premiership clean sheets to 9.

Luis Boa Morte gets a rare start for West Ham, and he has previous history of success against Chelsea in his Fulham days. (Buy Boa goal minutes @7, for £2 a point)

Tuesday 17 April 2007

Relegation battle hots up

A terrible run of form since Christmas, with just 1 win in 16 games has seem Fulham almost sleepwalk into the drop zone and quite rightly cost Chris Coleman his job.

Their remaining 4 fixtures are imprinted in the minds of all Fulham fans, starting with a home fixture against Blackburn on Saturday and then Arsenal (a), Liverpool (h) and Middlesboro (a).

Looking at the relegation prices on www.Betfair.com, there seems to be some value in backing Fulham to go down. (alternatively there is also value in laying Charlton at 1.81)

The general consensus amongst Fulham fans who have been working out all of the possible permutations, is that this will end up a straight shoot out between Fulham and Charlton.

Both Sheffield Utd and Wigan have relatively gentle run-ins and have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they can get to the magic 40 point mark (39 will probably be enough in any case)

Sheffield Utd travel to Old Trafford tonight in what looks like a banker home win, but it is the game at the Valley on Saturday that could well decide the fate of the strugglers.

Follow the relegation dogfight here with the Football Trader

Friday 13 April 2007

WBA v Sheff Wed

I have had a few small trades on the over/under 2.5 goals market at the Hawthorns.

After looking at the first 45 minutes I would say it is only a matter of time before a goal goes in.

The pace of Kamara is worrying the Wednesday defence, but so far his finishing has let him down. I would expect him to get his name on the scoresheet in the 2nd half.

WBA have a decent squad and with Kevin Phillips and Jason Koumas on the bench have options to change the game if things don't go their way (I have backed the Baggies at 2.16)

I have had my first proper look at Sheff Weds highly rated Chris Brunt tonight, and he hasn't disappointed. Comfortable on the ball and an educated left foot, the Northern Irish international looks capable of making it in the Premiership. Maybe the Lawrie Sanchez connection will see him end up at Craven Cottage?

Hopefully we can get an early goal in the second half to get me into a profitable position

Will update later

Wednesday 11 April 2007

Coleman sacked

Chris Coleman's sacking late last night gave a golden opportunity to any eagle eyed traders out there.

I heard the news at about 11.30pm last night, made a phone call to the editor of www.fulhamweb.com to discuss the temporary appointment of Lawrie Sanchez and then at about midnight decided to have a quick look on Betfair at the Managerial change market.

I couldn't believe that Coleman could still be backed at 1.17 to be the next manager to leave. As I tried to put funds into my account I saw the price drop rapidly, until it settled at 1.01.

A 1% guaranteed return was not that useful to me given the size of my bankroll, but how I wish I had gone straight to Betfair at 11.30pm and taken the guaranteed money on offer.

This is definitely something I will be looking out for in future!

Tuesday 10 April 2007

Chelsea progress

Another exhibition of the resilience in the Chelsea camp as a late Michael Essien strike completed a spirited comeback and fired them into the Champions League semi final.

7 goal Man Utd will claim the plaudits, but make no mistake Chelsea's win at the Mestella is one of the best European performances of modern times.

There is an almost ineveitability about Chelsea wins at the moment, with their big players coming into their own at a crucial time of the season. Added to that the emerging presence of Jon Obi Mikel who was magnificent in the holding midfield role, and Joe Cole looking sprightly after injury and Mourinho has the recipe for unprecedented glory.

Unfortunately from a trading point of view I didn't get involved in the game but did recommend laying Valencia both pre match and also at HT, so hope you got on and trousered a nice profit.

Shevchenko strikes

Chelsea back on level terms as Shevchenko poaches from close range.

As mentioned earlier I did fancy a big performance from Shevchenko and Ballack and with the HT introduction of Joe Cole the momentum is with Chelsea.

Valencia can be backed at 2.12 to qualify now so if you layed that at HT (1.45) you would have a nice trading profit of c. 40%

With United now 5-0 up could we have 3 English teams in the Semi Finals?

Champions League Update

Well so much for Man Utd underperforming. They have blown away Roma with 4 first half goals and have almost guaranteed themselves a place in the Semi Final.

Chelsea looked comfortale at 0-0 in Spain, but Valencia upped the tempo for 10 minutes and a Morientes strike gave them a 1-0 lead at HT.

Valencia still look worth laying to qualify (now @1.45) as I expect them to sit back and soak up pressure as Chelsea go all out for an equaliser.

I haven't got involved financially in the games tonight (which is probably a good job!), but I do fancy Chelsea to get something.

Chelsea to progress?

Valencia's Mestella stadium has been a graveyard for English clubs in the past, and Chelsea will have to be at their efficient best to set up a semi final clash with Liverpool.

Scanning the prices on offer at Betfair I was surprised to see Chelsea as favourites to win the match (2.76), even though I do fancy Mourinho's men to do the business.

Despite all the apparent unrest at Stamford Bridge the team have continued winning even with injuries, a lack of balance and some underperforming 'Galacticos'.

Whilst Chelsea may not win many popularity contests, it is hard to dispute the spirt in the camp, and with the match delicately poised at 1-1, it may only take 1 goal to get the job done.

Even if the Blues rearguard is breached, it will not really change the complexion of the tie as Chelsea have to score at least once to survive.

Didier Drogba did enough in the 1st leg to suggest that he can unsettle Ayala and co. With Essien and Joe Cole both retuning to fitness and both Ballack & Shevchenko owing a performance I am tempted to lay Valencia to qualify @1.91.

In tonight's other match, I am a bit worried for Man Utd. They have been underperforming for a number of weeks now and have injury and suspension problems.

Roma deposed of a talented Lyon side in the away leg last time out and I fancy them to score at least once at Old Trafford tonight.

I was at the Nou Camp in 1999 when United completed their unprecedented treble, but I have serious concerns that they could finish potless this time around

Wednesday 4 April 2007

Under 2.5 goals Chelsea v Valencia

Due to some small cash flow problems (!), I have withdrawn most of my bankroll, so have not been trading much in April as yet.

Having reviewed my P&L statement for March, trading on football has brought a profit of £576.77.

I have just released £5.00 from a couple of my relegation trades (movements in my favour from West Ham and Charlton as advised earlier).

I have had a very small lay on over 2.5 goals in the Chelsea v Valencia tie at 2.42. Hopefully I can make a few pennies to get April rolling.

Will update later

Chelsea and Man Utd in trouble

After Liverpool's sparkling performance last night, things are not going as smoothly for the 2 remaining English representatives tonight.

Chelsea have conceded a vital away goal to Valencia and really need to turn things around before their trip to the intimdating Mestella stadium.

Man United are down to 10 men after Paul Scholes collected 2 yellows and have just conceded minutes before half time.

Lets hope the 2nd half brings better news