Swansea v Fulham

I have never quite worked out why Welsh clubs are allowed into the FA Cup, and to make things worse, in recent years they have done pretty well. In form Swansea fly the flag for Wales in todays early kick off and they fancy their chances of knocking out Fulham.

They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.

I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).

Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.

I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.

They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.

On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.

True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.

I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.

Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.

Good luck if you get involved