Another revealing week in the PL as this topsy turvey season begins to take shape.
Starting at the top, I turned down a massive hospitality gig at Old Trafford on Saturday as the champions elect once again found a forgiving ref to bail them out.
The joys of being single dad are severely tested when a 5.30am finish is being missed - do I really want a jolly including free football, booze, lap dancers and a casino?
Never mind, most of the controversy washed over me as i have no access to Setanta and as a Fulham fan a defeat for any team in the bottom half is always welcome.
Liverpool once again failed to win at home, and any followers of this blog hopefully layed Benitez's men when advised many months ago. Despite the multi million pound budget, the Reds are miles away from sustaining a proper domestic challenge
The same could be said of Arsenal, who failed to capitalise on Villa's defeat at the hands of a rejuvenated Chelsea with another 0-0 draw at home to Sunderland.
The Gunners failed at a price of 1.44, but lump your mortgage on Wenger's side to beat Fulham on Saturday @ 1.46. A 46% return for 90 minutes work is just too much for a team that has never beaten Arsenal away in their history.
Talking of Fulham, which I do on a regular basis, how good is Roy Hodgson? we rolled over at Old Trafford last wednesday, but then produced our best performance of the season against WBA.
The massively underrated Bobby Zamora at last found the net as the Whites propelled themselves to the edge of a European place.
Swansea in the cup tomorrow night, £20 pay on the door is too tempting to turn down, and with Hull and Blackburn scheduled to visit the Cottage in the next 2 weeks this could be a prolific period for BZ.
Talking of Hull, another home defeat tonight against Spurs, your record signing and best payed (one legged) player out for the season - the Tigers are in deep shit.
Trading wise, I don't want to after event so will not go into detail about winning bets. I have a profit of c. £50 on the month to date but I spent £30 on beer,food and cigs tonight.
Small regular profits are great, but I would prefer more to support my lifestyle!
Tuesday 24 February 2009
Monday 16 February 2009
Eduardo back for Arsenal
The Brazilian/Croat Eduardo has marked his return from a serious injury with the opening goal for Arsenal against Cardiff.
The Gunners have a dream draw through to the semi-finals, with Burnley and then Hull or Sheffield Utd set to visit the Emirates.
I couldn't get involved in the game tonight given Arsenal's prohibitive price, although an 11 match unbeaten run suggests that they are building up a head of steam for the climax of the season. With Arshavin, Walcott, Fabregas and Rosicky still to come back into the mix, Arsenal shouldn't be written off in the hunt for trophies in May.
Despite the disappointment of missing out on a small profit tonight, my new found discipline is starting to pay dividends.
Just one trade recommended on the weekend, a lay of Swansea paid dividends despite the fawning media's reaction to the Welsh sides performance.
Rarely have I seen such an overaction to a home side failing to win despite trading as clear favourites and Fulham should have more than enough to prevail in the replay.
I am having a speculative interest in Arsenal to win the FA Cup @ 5.10, on current form I would suggest you get on!
The Gunners have a dream draw through to the semi-finals, with Burnley and then Hull or Sheffield Utd set to visit the Emirates.
I couldn't get involved in the game tonight given Arsenal's prohibitive price, although an 11 match unbeaten run suggests that they are building up a head of steam for the climax of the season. With Arshavin, Walcott, Fabregas and Rosicky still to come back into the mix, Arsenal shouldn't be written off in the hunt for trophies in May.
Despite the disappointment of missing out on a small profit tonight, my new found discipline is starting to pay dividends.
Just one trade recommended on the weekend, a lay of Swansea paid dividends despite the fawning media's reaction to the Welsh sides performance.
Rarely have I seen such an overaction to a home side failing to win despite trading as clear favourites and Fulham should have more than enough to prevail in the replay.
I am having a speculative interest in Arsenal to win the FA Cup @ 5.10, on current form I would suggest you get on!
Saturday 14 February 2009
Swansea v Fulham - HT Update
Fulham lead at half time thanks to a fortuitous own goal and the tip of the day (lay Swansea) is a good un.
The 1-0 scoreline does not reflect the 1st half, as Swansea should have been two up, Mark Gower hitting a post and forcing a great save from Mark Schwarzer from point blank range.
However, despite a lot of pretty football, it is goals that count and as suggested earlier the traders have misread Fulham once again on their travels, which is great for those following my recent tips.
I have taken the profits at HT, so i can sit back and cheer on Fulham without worrying about trading.
The 1-0 scoreline does not reflect the 1st half, as Swansea should have been two up, Mark Gower hitting a post and forcing a great save from Mark Schwarzer from point blank range.
However, despite a lot of pretty football, it is goals that count and as suggested earlier the traders have misread Fulham once again on their travels, which is great for those following my recent tips.
I have taken the profits at HT, so i can sit back and cheer on Fulham without worrying about trading.
Swansea v Fulham
I have never quite worked out why Welsh clubs are allowed into the FA Cup, and to make things worse, in recent years they have done pretty well. In form Swansea fly the flag for Wales in todays early kick off and they fancy their chances of knocking out Fulham.
They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.
I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).
Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.
I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.
They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.
On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.
True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.
I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.
Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.
Good luck if you get involved
They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.
I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).
Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.
I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.
They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.
On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.
True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.
I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.
Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.
Good luck if you get involved
Chelsea losses mount
Peter Kenyon, the Chelsea chief executive could be touting his services to the treasury or British banking industry with his grasp of financial reality.
Not that long ago Kenyon was claiming that Chelsea would be self sufficient in terms of funding by July 2009.
A quick scan of the club's accounts show more significant losses in the period covered - £65.7m. As chief executive, surely Kenyon should have a better handle on the excesses at Stamford Bridge.
An ageing and bloated squad are the major expense with nearly £150m spent on wages, in addition over £23m has been spent on compensation for Mourinho and Grant.(an additional £7m will be needed to terminate Scholari's reign)
Abramovich is now in for almost £700m, and despite constant reassurances of the oligarchs commitment from the Chelsea PR machine - there seems little doubt that he has grown bored of throwing his money around in the transfer market.
The lack of activity in the transfer market means that whichever lucky manager takes control of the gravy train will need to sell before they can buy to re-structure an unbalanced squad.
Therein lies the problem, not many clubs will match the ridiculous contracts that have been handed out to average players, and resale values of many expensive signings have plummeted. The likes of Ballack, Deco and Lampard will be quite happy to see out their contracts at the Bridge, so generating significant funds will be difficult.
Hiddink has a tough short term challenge, and Juventus look overpriced to end Chelsea's European dreams this season (2.38 to qualify).
Another trophyless season looks on the cards - it couldn't happen to a nicer club.
Not that long ago Kenyon was claiming that Chelsea would be self sufficient in terms of funding by July 2009.
A quick scan of the club's accounts show more significant losses in the period covered - £65.7m. As chief executive, surely Kenyon should have a better handle on the excesses at Stamford Bridge.
An ageing and bloated squad are the major expense with nearly £150m spent on wages, in addition over £23m has been spent on compensation for Mourinho and Grant.(an additional £7m will be needed to terminate Scholari's reign)
Abramovich is now in for almost £700m, and despite constant reassurances of the oligarchs commitment from the Chelsea PR machine - there seems little doubt that he has grown bored of throwing his money around in the transfer market.
The lack of activity in the transfer market means that whichever lucky manager takes control of the gravy train will need to sell before they can buy to re-structure an unbalanced squad.
Therein lies the problem, not many clubs will match the ridiculous contracts that have been handed out to average players, and resale values of many expensive signings have plummeted. The likes of Ballack, Deco and Lampard will be quite happy to see out their contracts at the Bridge, so generating significant funds will be difficult.
Hiddink has a tough short term challenge, and Juventus look overpriced to end Chelsea's European dreams this season (2.38 to qualify).
Another trophyless season looks on the cards - it couldn't happen to a nicer club.
Thursday 12 February 2009
Rise of the stalemate
0-0 draws are the bain of many exchange traders and spread bettors lives across the world.
Betting on something not to happen is much less fun than cheering on goals as they fly in during exciting attacking matches, but the dreaded goalless draw is on the rise in the English Premier League.
27 top flight matches have finshed goalless this season, already more than the whole of last season.
As the season moves into a key phase, caution amongst the mass of teams involved in the relegation scrap could lead to even more 0-0 draws.
It apears that the bookies have yet to react to the changing distibution of results and correct score odds have remained stable.
The last 2 weekend's of PL football have both yielded 3 goalless draws, so there may be a chance for those who like to dabble in multiple bets to maximise profits.
Keep your eyes open for opportunities in the weeks ahead
Betting on something not to happen is much less fun than cheering on goals as they fly in during exciting attacking matches, but the dreaded goalless draw is on the rise in the English Premier League.
27 top flight matches have finshed goalless this season, already more than the whole of last season.
As the season moves into a key phase, caution amongst the mass of teams involved in the relegation scrap could lead to even more 0-0 draws.
It apears that the bookies have yet to react to the changing distibution of results and correct score odds have remained stable.
The last 2 weekend's of PL football have both yielded 3 goalless draws, so there may be a chance for those who like to dabble in multiple bets to maximise profits.
Keep your eyes open for opportunities in the weeks ahead
Monday 9 February 2009
Managerial Merry Go-Round
Tony Adams and Big Phil Scholari have both been relieved of their duties today, leading to some fun and games on the next manager markets on Betfair.
Pompey have been unlucky to lose to both Fulham and Livepool in recent weeks, but with defending almost as naive as Adams' press conferences the writing was on the wall for the ex England international.
Portsmouth are in serious danger of going down as they look to find their 3rd manager of the season.
Avram Grant is currently trading as favourite, but a small investment in Alan Curbishley at 7.00 may be the better bet.
At Stamford Bridge, things just get better. Scholari was hailed as the greatest thing since sliced bread after a decent start to the season, but his one dimensional tactics have been rumbled and Chelsea could be in danger of dropping out of the top 4.
Any side that can stop the threat of the Chelsea full backs has half a chance of getting a result.
Ray Wilkins surely won't be allowed more than one game in charge, as some of the highest profile european managers are being linked with the job. Hiddink is currently favourite, but I would be surprised if he left the Russian national job to salvage Chelsea's season.
Even before news of Scholari's exit, I was advised by a very good judge that if i was going to have one more bet in my lifetime I should be backing Juventus to qualify against Chelsea in the champions league. Juve currently trading @ 2.34.
It would be sweet for the Tinkerman Ranieri to heap further misery on Abramovich and Chelsea
Pompey have been unlucky to lose to both Fulham and Livepool in recent weeks, but with defending almost as naive as Adams' press conferences the writing was on the wall for the ex England international.
Portsmouth are in serious danger of going down as they look to find their 3rd manager of the season.
Avram Grant is currently trading as favourite, but a small investment in Alan Curbishley at 7.00 may be the better bet.
At Stamford Bridge, things just get better. Scholari was hailed as the greatest thing since sliced bread after a decent start to the season, but his one dimensional tactics have been rumbled and Chelsea could be in danger of dropping out of the top 4.
Any side that can stop the threat of the Chelsea full backs has half a chance of getting a result.
Ray Wilkins surely won't be allowed more than one game in charge, as some of the highest profile european managers are being linked with the job. Hiddink is currently favourite, but I would be surprised if he left the Russian national job to salvage Chelsea's season.
Even before news of Scholari's exit, I was advised by a very good judge that if i was going to have one more bet in my lifetime I should be backing Juventus to qualify against Chelsea in the champions league. Juve currently trading @ 2.34.
It would be sweet for the Tinkerman Ranieri to heap further misery on Abramovich and Chelsea
Friday 6 February 2009
Premier League Preview
Can Fulham end their away day jinx at Wigan?
www.sportinglife.com tip up Wigan at evens to continue an excellent home run that has yielded 5 wins in the last 7 games at the JJB.
On the surface the tip looks solid enough, and I wouldn't be greatly surprised if Wigan secure the 3 points and with it their Premier League status for next season.
However a quick look at the statistics for this season could lead you to a different betting opportunity.
Fulham have only been behind at half time in one game out of 23 and despite their wretched away record have yet to be behind at the break on their travels.
Past form suggests that Fulham are more than capable of getting to HT with the score level (at worst)
I am not a fan of HT/FT betting, but given the consistency of Fulham's away record it could pay to get involved in this market.
draw/Wigan @5.6
draw/draw @5.2
draw/Fulham @11.00
Despite Wigan's transfer dealings they have lost 2 of their best players in Palacios and Heskey, so a small bet on Fulham to break their away duck at 4.40 is also advised.
www.sportinglife.com tip up Wigan at evens to continue an excellent home run that has yielded 5 wins in the last 7 games at the JJB.
On the surface the tip looks solid enough, and I wouldn't be greatly surprised if Wigan secure the 3 points and with it their Premier League status for next season.
However a quick look at the statistics for this season could lead you to a different betting opportunity.
Fulham have only been behind at half time in one game out of 23 and despite their wretched away record have yet to be behind at the break on their travels.
Past form suggests that Fulham are more than capable of getting to HT with the score level (at worst)
I am not a fan of HT/FT betting, but given the consistency of Fulham's away record it could pay to get involved in this market.
draw/Wigan @5.6
draw/draw @5.2
draw/Fulham @11.00
Despite Wigan's transfer dealings they have lost 2 of their best players in Palacios and Heskey, so a small bet on Fulham to break their away duck at 4.40 is also advised.
Thursday 5 February 2009
ITV
Nobody watches football on ITV out of choice, the puke inducing pre parared lines of Clive Tyldesley are enough to intice vomit around the UK.
But tonight, a new low in football coverage.
After sitting through 117 minutes and at least 6 Peroni's during the Merseyside Derby, I decided to sneak in a quick smoke before the inevitable penalty shoot out.
Just as I began to leave the bar Itv decide to cut to adverts with at least 5 minutes of the game to go.
After 3 adverts the pictures come back to Everton celebrating a stunning winning goal from Dan Gosling.
No apology from Itv yet, but hopefully the football authroities have seen enough inept coverage to take the contract from the muppets at itv
But tonight, a new low in football coverage.
After sitting through 117 minutes and at least 6 Peroni's during the Merseyside Derby, I decided to sneak in a quick smoke before the inevitable penalty shoot out.
Just as I began to leave the bar Itv decide to cut to adverts with at least 5 minutes of the game to go.
After 3 adverts the pictures come back to Everton celebrating a stunning winning goal from Dan Gosling.
No apology from Itv yet, but hopefully the football authroities have seen enough inept coverage to take the contract from the muppets at itv
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)